基于R语言的我国GDP的建模及其预测

Modeling and Prediction of China’s GDP Based on R Language

摘要: 国内生产总值是(GDP)体现一个国家或地区经济的最核心、最常用的数量指标。利用求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型对1952年至2024年我国GDP的年度数据建模，并用R语言编程实现，得到了预测精度高的ARIMA(2,2,1)模型，用此模型预测出未来10年我国GDP，它反映了未来10年我国GDP仍然呈上升趋。这个预测结果对科学决策和政策制定具有参考价值。

Abstract: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most core and commonly used quantitative indicator that reflects the economy of a country or region. We used the Sum Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model to model the annual data of China’s GDP from 1952 to 2024, and implemented it using R programming to obtain the ARIMA (2,2,1) model with high prediction accuracy. Using this model, we predicted China’s GDP for the next 10 years, which reflects that China’s GDP will still be on the rise in the next 10 years. This prediction result has reference value for scientific decision-making and policy-making.