近11a乌鲁木齐机场东南大风的时间特征分析

Analysis of the Temporal Characteristics of Southeasterly Gales at Urumqi Airport in the Past 11 Years

摘要: 为进一步提升乌鲁木齐机场东南大风天气的预报能力，本文利用2014~2024年机场的METAR和SPECI天气报告资料，系统分析了近11年机场东南大风的年际变化、月变化、日变化、开始与结束时间及持续时间等时间特征。结果表明：机场东南大风的年际上呈显著下降趋势，且2019年后风力强度明显减弱；月际分布呈“春多秋次、冬夏罕见”的典型特征，春季(尤其4月)发生频率最高，且出现时风力整体强于其余季节；日变化呈单峰型，11时前后最多，19时前后最少；过程持续时间多在2~5小时，大风持续时间多在2小时以内，且持续时间一旦超过5 h，则持续超过8小时的可能性极大；开始出现时间与持续时间的关系复杂多变，但凌晨00~04时和上午08~12时更容易出现超过15小时的过程，20~次日08时出现的大风持续时间有一定概率超过8小时。

Abstract: To further enhance the prediction capability for southeasterly gales at Urumqi Airport, this study employed METAR and SPECI weather observation data from 2014 to 2024 to conduct a systematic analysis of the temporal characteristics of these events. The analysis encompassed interannual variation, monthly distribution, diurnal variation, as well as start time, end time, and duration. The results indicated a significant interannual decreasing trend in the occurrence of southeasterly gales, with a notable attenuation in intensity after 2019. The monthly distribution exhibited a typical pattern characterized as “most prevalent in spring, less common in autumn, and rare in winter and summer.” These winds occurred most frequently in spring (especially in April), and the wind force during spring events was generally stronger than in other seasons. A distinct single-peak pattern was observed in the diurnal cycle, with the frequency peaking around 11:00 LT and reaching its lowest point around 19:00 LT. The duration of wind events mostly ranged from 2 to 5 hours, with the period of gale-force winds often lasting less than 2 hours. However, once the duration exceeded 5 hours, it was highly likely to persist for more than 8 hours. The relationship between the start time and duration was complex and variable. Nevertheless, events initiated between 00:00~04:00 LT and 08:00~12:00 LT were more susceptible to lasting over 15 hours, while those occurring between 20:00 LT and 08:00 LT the next day had a significantly higher probability of exceeding 8 hours in duration.