气候变化和人类活动对陕西省植被NDVI变化的影响分析

Impact Analysis of Climate Change and Human Activities on NDVI Changes in Vegetation in Shaanxi Province

摘要: 本文基于2000~2022年MODIS NDVI数据，结合气象资料与残差分析法，定量揭示陕西省植被覆盖变化的时空特征及驱动机制。结果表明：(1) 全省NDVI以0.005/a速率显著上升，空间上陕北增速 > 陕南 > 关中；(2) 气温与NDVI正相关性(R = 0.469)强于降水(R = 0.0359)，其中气温对陕南影响最显著，降水对陕北贡献最大；(3) 人类活动整体促进植被恢复，退耕还林政策区NDVI提升显著，关中城市扩张区呈局部负效应。研究表明，气候变化是陕西省NDVI变化的强相关因子，人类活动也是造成陕西省NDVI变化的重要因素。

Abstract: Based on MODIS NDVI data from 2000 to 2022, combined with meteorological data and residual analysis, this paper quantitatively reveals the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of vegetation cover change in Shaanxi Province. The results showed that: (1) the NDVI in the province increased significantly at a rate of 0.005/a, and the growth rate in northern Shaanxi was > southern Shaanxi > Guanzhong; (2) The positive correlation between temperature and NDVI (R = 0.469) was stronger than that of precipitation (R = 0.0359), among which temperature had the most significant effect on southern Shaanxi and precipitation contributed the most to northern Shaanxi. (3) Human activities promote vegetation restoration as a whole, and the NDVI in the policy area of returning farmland to forest has increased significantly, while the urban expansion area in Guanzhong has a local negative effect. The results show that climate change is a strong correlation factor for NDVI change in Shaanxi Province, and human activities are also an important factor for NDVI change in Shaanxi Province.