人口波动背景下县域教师编制管理的适应性治理研究——以江苏省常熟市为例

Research on Adaptive Governance of County Teacher Staffing Management under the Background of Population Fluctuations—Taking Changshu City of Jiangsu Province as an Example

摘要: 人口结构的系统性变迁正对我国县域公共服务供给体系构成深刻挑战，其中，教师编制管理的“路径依赖”与人口波动的“高不确定性”之间的矛盾尤为突出。传统的静态、刚性编制管理范式在应对学龄人口“总量缓降、结构失衡、时空错配”的新常态时，显现出明显的适应性不足，引致结构性缺员与隐性冗余并存的资源错配困境。本文以江苏省常熟市为典型案例，首先构建一个整合了“总量–结构–空间–时点”(TSSS)的四维分析框架，以系统性地解构人口波动向教师需求传导过程中的非线性动力机制，包括滞后效应、错峰效应与刚性约束。实证分析表明，常熟市正经历由人口波动传导滞后性引发的学段错峰，并叠加了新课改引致的学科结构性短缺、城镇化进程中的空间极化以及学期运行中的时点性缺岗等多重压力。为回应此治理困境，本文尝试建构一套名为“常熟方案”的适应性治理模型。该模型以“数据驱动的预测–多主体协同的调节–制度化的学习反思”为核心逻辑，通过设计一系列体现“制度修补”(institutional bricolage)思路的耦合制度工具，如“教师需求年度滚动预测”、“编制周转使用机制”、“跨学段发展与教师共享”等，旨在塑造一个兼具弹性、韧性与效率的教师资源动态配置新范式。本研究旨在将适应性治理理论引入教师编制管理领域，为破解不确定环境下的公共资源配置难题，提出了一个旨在融合理论解释与实践操作的分析框架与制度构想。

Abstract: Systemic changes in demographic structure are posing profound challenges to the public service supply system in China’s counties, wherein the contradiction between the institutional inertia and “path dependence” characteristic of teacher staffing management and the high uncertainty of population fluctuations is particularly prominent. The traditional static, rigid paradigm of staffing management demonstrates clear adaptive insufficiency when responding to the “new normal” of a school-age population marked by a slow decline in total numbers, structural imbalance, and spatio-temporal mismatch. This leads to a resource mismatch dilemma where structural shortages and hidden redundancies coexist. Taking Changshu City in Jiangsu Province as a typical case, this paper first constructs a four-dimensional analytical framework integrating “Total-Structure-Space-Timepoint” (TSSS) to systematically deconstruct the non-linear dynamic mechanisms—including lag effects, staggering effects, and rigid constraints, in the transmission process from population fluctuations to teacher demand. Empirical analysis shows that Changshu is experiencing staggered peaks across school stages caused by the transmission lag of population fluctuations, superimposed with multiple pressures such as structural subject shortages induced by new curriculum reform, spatial polarization in the urbanization process, and point-in-time vacancies during the academic term. To respond to this governance dilemma, this paper attempts to construct an adaptive governance model named the “Changshu Solution.” This model, with “data-driven forecasting, multi-stakeholder coordinated adjustment, and institutionalized learning and reflection” as its core logic, aims to shape a new paradigm for dynamic teacher resource allocation that is flexible, resilient, and efficient. This is achieved by designing a series of coupled institutional tools that reflect the idea of “institutional bricolage,” such as “annual rolling forecasts of teacher demand,” a “revolving staffing mechanism,” and “cross-level development and teacher sharing.” This research aims to introduce adaptive governance theory into the field of teacher staffing management, proposing an analytical framework and institutional blueprint that integrates theoretical explanation with practical operation to solve the problem of public resource allocation in uncertain environments.