1970~2024年云南马关县气温变化特征分析

Analysis of the Characteristics of Temperature Changes in Maguan County, Yunnan from 1970~2024

摘要: 基于1970~2024年马关县气温资料，本文运用线性趋势分析、累积距平、M-K突变检验等方法，对马关县气温变化特征进行了分析。研究结果显示，近55年来，尤其是2010年代以后，马关县的年平均最高气温、年平均气温、年平均最低气温、极端最高气温均呈现出显著的升高趋势，这一升温现象主要受年平均最低气温增温和秋季增温的影响。突变检验结果表明，年平均最高气温、极端最高气温的增温突变较为显著，分别发生在2002年、2006年。马关县的气温变化不仅具有长期上升趋势，还存在年代际和季节性的差异，该研究为马关县的气象预报预警、农业生产、生态环境保护及防灾减灾规划提供了科学依据，有助于更好地应对气候变化带来的挑战。

Abstract: Based on the temperature data of Maguan County from 1970 to 2024, this study analyzed the temperature change characteristics of Maguan County by using linear trend analysis, cumulative anomaly, and M-K mutation test methods. The results show that over the past 55 years, especially since the 2010s, the annual average maximum temperature, annual average temperature, annual average minimum temperature, extreme maximum temperature of Maguan County have all shown a significant upward trend, and this is mainly influenced by the increase in the annual average minimum temperature and the warming in autumn. The mutation test results indicate that the warming mutations of the annual average maximum temperature, extreme maximum temperature are significant, with mutations occurring in 2002, 2006 respectively. The temperature changes in Maguan County not only show a long-term upward trend but also have interdecadal and seasonal differences. This research provides a scientific basis for meteorological forecasting and warning, agricultural production, ecological environment protection and disaster prevention and mitigation planning in Maguan County, which is helpful for better coping with the challenges brought by climate change.