临沧市近64a气候变化特征分析

Analysis of Climate Change Characteristics in Lincang City during the Last 64 Years

摘要: 为探究中缅边境复杂山地地形区域气候变化特征，利用1961~2024年临沧市8个国家气象站的气温、降水资料，采用Mann-Kendall突变检验和分段回归方法，分析了临沧市近64a气温和降水变化特征。结果表明：(1) 年平均气温以0.22℃∙(10a)⁻¹的速率显著升高并在2004年发生显著突变，突变后升温速率进一步加剧。(2) 年平均最高气温以0.21℃∙(10a)⁻¹速率平稳升温，秋季最敏感；年平均最低气温以 0.32℃∙(10a)⁻¹的速率显著升高，突变特征普遍存在且秋冬季贡献突出。(3) 年降水量以−27.93 mm∙(10a)⁻¹的速率显著减少，在2015年发生显著突变，由夏秋季主导，突变后速率骤增至−329.33 mm∙(10a)⁻¹。(4) 年降雨日数以−7.66 d∙(10a)⁻¹的速率显著减少，夏季则显著增加(1.98 d∙(10a)⁻¹)，降雨日数的减少主要由春、秋、冬的下降趋势所主导。临沧市近64a整体呈现气温显著升高、降雨量和降雨日数显著减少的气候变化特征。

Abstract: To investigate the characteristics of climate change in the complex mountainous terrain along the China-Myanmar border, this study utilized temperature and precipitation data (1961~2024) from eight national meteorological stations in Lincang City. The Mann-Kendall test and piecewise regression analysis were employed to analyze the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation over the recent 64-year period. The results show that: (1) The annual mean temperature increased significantly at a rate of 0.22˚C/decade, with a notable abrupt change occurring in 2004, after which the warming rate intensified. (2) The annual mean maximum temperature increased steadily at 0.21˚C∙decade⁻¹, most markedly in autumn, while the annual mean minimum temperature rose at a higher rate of 0.32˚C/decade, with widespread abrupt changes predominantly in autumn and winter. (3) Annual precipitation exhibited a significant decreasing trend at −27.93 mm/decade, with an abrupt change in 2015 largely driven by reductions in summer and autumn, followed by a sharp decline at −329.33 mm/decade. (4) The annual number of rainy days decreased by −7.66 days/decade, despite a summer increase of 1.98 days/decade. Seasonal reductions in spring, autumn, and winter primarily contributed to this trend. Overall, Lincang has experienced pronounced warming coupled with significant declines in both precipitation and rainy days over the study period.