四川农村老年人养老脆弱性及其韧性治理研究

Research on the Vulnerability of Elderly Care and Its Resilience Governance in Rural Areas of Sichuan Province

摘要: 本文以四川农村老年人为研究对象，基于“敏感性–应对能力”分析框架，结合脆弱性与韧性治理理论，构建了包含人口、经济、健康等维度的养老脆弱性评价指标体系，运用集对分析法测算四川农村21个市(州)的养老脆弱性指数，并借助障碍度模型识别关键影响因素，同时探讨了韧性治理存在的问题及优化策略。研究发现：四川农村老年人养老脆弱性总体处于中等水平，呈现“东低西高”的区域差异特征，成都平原经济区为较低脆弱区，攀西及川西北为高脆弱区；老年抚养比、国家级贫困县数量、低保中老年人覆盖率、农作物受灾面积占比、医疗保健支出占比是主要影响因素；当前韧性治理存在养老服务供给不足、应对风险能力较弱、政策执行与协调不到位等问题。据此，从国家、社会、家庭、个体四个层面提出了针对性的韧性治理策略，旨在为缓解四川农村养老脆弱性、提升养老保障水平提供参考。

Abstract: This article takes elderly people in rural areas of Sichuan Province as the research object, based on the “sensitivity coping ability” analysis framework, combined with the theory of vulnerability and resilience governance, constructs an evaluation index system for elderly care vulnerability that includes dimensions such as population, economy, and health. The set pair analysis method is used to calculate the elderly care vulnerability index of 21 cities (prefectures) in rural areas of Sichuan Province, and the obstacle degree model is used to identify key influencing factors. At the same time, the problems and optimization strategies of resilience governance are discussed. Research has found that the overall vulnerability of elderly care in rural areas of Sichuan is at a moderate level, showing a regional difference of “low in the east and high in the west”. The Chengdu Plain Economic Zone is a relatively low vulnerability area, while Panxi and northwest Sichuan are high vulnerability areas; The main influencing factors are the elderly dependency ratio, the number of poverty-stricken counties at the national level, the coverage rate of middle-aged and elderly people receiving subsistence allowances, the proportion of crop affected areas, and the proportion of medical and health expenditures; The current resilience governance faces problems such as insufficient supply of elderly care services, weak risk response capabilities, and inadequate policy implementation and coordination. Based on this, targeted resilience governance strategies have been proposed from four levels: national, social, family, and individual, aiming to provide reference for alleviating the vulnerability of rural elderly care in Sichuan and improving the level of elderly care security.