“三生”空间视角下流域景观生态风险演变及归因探测

The Evolution and Attribution Detection of Landscape Ecological Risk in the River Basin from the Perspective of “Three Lives” Space

摘要: 科学评估漓江流域景观生态风险，可为流域生态系统管理和可持续发展提供理论依据。本文以漓江流域2000~2020年3期土地利用数据为基础，应用景观格局指数和地理探测器模型方法，定量分析“三生”空间视角下漓江流域景观格局与生态风险的时空演变，以及其背后的驱动因素。结果表明：(1) 2000~2020年，漓江流域城乡生活空间向外扩张，占据更多的农业生产空间和林地生态空间；林地生态空间和农业生产空间为优势景观，仍占主导位置，整体景观破碎化变化较小，景观连通性和聚集性呈增长趋势。(2) 研究期间，漓江流域景观生态风险整体较低，空间差异显著，呈中部较高，四周较低的空间分布格局；20年来，漓江流域景观生态风险呈下降趋势，低生态风险区扩张，高生态风险区缩小；高生态风险多集中分布于水域生态空间地区，低生态风险在林地生态空间地区呈优势分布。(3) 年均降水量和人口密度是对漓江流域景观生态风险影响最大的因子。多因子交互作用的研究结果表明，所有因子的交互作用都是协同增强。总的来说，漓江流域的景观生态风险整体上呈下降趋势，其时空演变受地形、降水量和人类活动的影响较大，且相对平缓。

Abstract: The management of the ecological system and sustainable development of the Lijiang River Basin by scientifically evaluating the landscape ecological risk. Based on the land use data from 2000 to 2020 in the Lijiang River Basin, landscape pattern indices and the geographic detector model were used to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of landscape pattern and ecological risk in the “three-life” space, as well as the underlying driving factors. The results indicate that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the urban and rural living space in the Lijiang River Basin expanded outward, occupying more agricultural production space and forest ecological space. Forest ecological space and agricultural production space are dominant landscapes and still occupy a leading position. Overall landscape fragmentation has changed slightly, and landscape connectivity and aggregation show an increasing trend. (2) Over the study period, the overall landscape ecological risk in the Lijiang River Basin is relatively low, with significant spatial differences. The distribution pattern is relatively high in the middle and low around the periphery. Over the 20 years, the landscape ecological risk in the Lijiang River Basin has been decreasing, with an expansion of low ecological risk areas and a reduction of high ecological risk areas. High ecological risk is mainly concentrated in the aquatic ecological space area, while low ecological risk predominates in the forest ecological space area. (3) The average annual precipitation and population density are the most influential indicators on the landscape ecological risk in the Lijiang River Basin. The results of the study on the interaction of multiple factors show that the interaction of all factors is mutually reinforcing. In conclusion, the overall landscape ecological risk in the Lijiang River Basin shows a decreasing trend. The spatiotemporal variation is greatly influenced by topography, precipitation, and human activities, and relatively slow.