民航飞机季节性故障研究

Research on the Seasonal Fault of the Civil Aircraft

摘要: 采用沈阳维修基地MD90机队的故障样本数据构造时间序列，首先采用建立组合模型的方法对序列进行分析，其次建立包含循环项和随机项的飞机故障预测组合模型，最后根据模型进行了预测分析。

Abstract: This paper constructs a time series model according to the MD90 fleet failure data in Shenyang Aircraft Maintenance Base. First, the series is studied by building the combined model. Secondly, the combined model including recycling and stochastic component is established to forecast failure. Lastly, the prediction and analysis are completed according to the model.