老龄化治理区域差异与基金调剂模型构建——以上海、平顶山、连云港为例

Regional Differences in Aging Governance and the Construction of Fund Adjustment Model—A Case Study of Shanghai, Pingdingshan and Lianyungang

摘要: 为破解中国老龄化治理的区域失衡困境，文章构建了“老龄化负担–财政自给能力”双因子的养老基金跨区域调剂模型，并结合“每三年动态调整系数”机制优化参数。以上海、平顶山、连云港为典型案例，量化分析三地2023年养老财政支出、老龄化率、财政自给率等关键指标。最后，通过整合上海2018年~2022年面板数据，采用分周期动态校准系数、长面板回测与实际数据对比三重方法检验模型有效性。研究发现：经济梯度的高低是主导养老资源分配的关键因素，而财政自给率进一步加剧区域分化。基于此，文章提出动态调剂模型。模型验证结果显示：三地均需上解调剂金，这与政策及财政现实高度一致。据此提出建议：优化调剂机制，建立区域养老协作联盟。该模型相比现有中央调剂金的“固定比例”模式，可通过双因子动态校准实现区域差异适配，为全国养老基金精准共济提供技术路径。

Abstract: To address the dilemma of regional imbalance in China’s aging governance, this paper constructs an inter-regional pension fund adjustment model with the two factors of “aging burden-fiscal self-sufficiency capacity” and optimizes parameters by integrating the “dynamic adjustment coefficient every three years” mechanism. Taking Shanghai, Pingdingshan, and Lianyungang as typical cases, it quantitatively analyzes key indicators such as pension fiscal expenditure, aging rate, and fiscal self-sufficiency rate of the three regions in 2023. Finally, by integrating the panel data of Shanghai from 2018 to 2022, the effectiveness of the model is tested through three methods: period-by-period dynamic calibration coefficient, long-panel backtesting, and comparison with actual data. The study finds that the level of economic gradient is a key factor dominating the allocation of pension resources, while the fiscal self-sufficiency rate further exacerbates regional differentiation. Based on this, a dynamic adjustment model is proposed. The model verification results show that all three regions need to remit adjustment funds, which is highly consistent with policy and fiscal reality. Accordingly, suggestions are made to optimize the adjustment mechanism and establish a regional pension cooperation alliance. Compared with the existing “fixed proportion” mode of the central adjustment fund, this model can adapt to regional differences through two-factor dynamic calibration, providing a technical path for the accurate mutual aid of the national pension fund.