我国交通运输业减污降碳协同效应的时空特征及其空间收敛分析

The Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Spatial Convergence Analysis of the Synergistic Effects of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Emission Reduction in China’s Transportation Sector

摘要: 交通运输减污降碳协同增效对中国实现“双碳”目标具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。为深入探讨交通运输减污降碳协同效应的时空演变特征及影响路径，基于2008~2022年中国30个省份(不含西藏及港澳台地区)的面板数据。通过构建交通运输减污降碳协同效应评价指标体系，结合耦合协调度和空间收敛模型，分析了其时空演变、收敛趋势及驱动因素。研究结果表明：1) 2008~2022年，交通运输减污降碳协同水平逐步提升，从低水平协调阶段过渡到中级协调阶段。经济发达的东部省份协同水平较高。2) 2008~2022年，交通运输减污降碳协同效应呈现出明显的空间收敛趋势，并显示出空间溢出效应。3) 能源消费结构、污染水平、运输结构、经济发展、对外开放、污染治理是影响交通运输减污降碳协同效应的核心驱动因素。研究表明，交通运输减污降碳协同效应逐渐增强，区域差异缩小，各影响因素具有显著的空间异质性。因此，建议制定多维度的减污降碳协同治理政策，充分发挥先进地区的引领作用，进一步推动交通运输绿色、低碳、高质量发展。

Abstract: The collaborative enhancement of pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction in transportation is crucial for China’s achievement of its “dual carbon” goals. This study, based on panel data from 30 provinces (excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan region) from 2008 to 2022, explores the spatial-temporal evolution and influence pathways of these collaborative effects. By constructing an evaluation index system and applying coupling coordination and spatial convergence models, the study analyzes the evolution, convergence trends, and driving factors of these effects. The findings show: 1) From 2008 to 2022, the collaborative level of pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction in transportation steadily increased, shifting from low-level to middle-level coordination, with economically developed eastern provinces exhibiting stronger collaboration. 2) A clear spatial convergence trend and spatial spillover effects were observed during this period. 3) Key driving factors include energy consumption structure, pollution levels, transportation structure, economic development, foreign openness, and pollution governance. The study concludes that while the collaborative effects are strengthening, regional disparities are decreasing, and spatial heterogeneity among influencing factors remains significant. Therefore, multi-dimensional governance policies are recommended to enhance collaboration, leveraging advanced regions to promote green, low-carbon, and high-quality transportation development.