中国能源–经济–环境系统动态响应与因果分析

Dynamic Response and Causal Analysis of Energy-Economic-Environment System in China

摘要: 在“双碳”背景下，中国作为全球最大能源消费国和第二大经济体，能源–经济–环境(3E)系统协同发展对全球可持续治理意义重大。本研究基于1990~2024年数据，宏观层面构建3E系统指标体系，利用子系统的综合得分建立VAR模型解析动态机制；微观层面构建因果网络，开展中心性分析识别重要变量进行脉冲影响，分析不同变量对系统的冲击。研究发现，能源是驱动经济环境变化的核心要素，环境规制对经济反馈作用小；能源冲击使经济短期负向调整，环境政策效应滞后明显，10期响应值仅升6.7%。在5%显著性水平下，环境是经济、能源系统的格兰杰原因。因果网络研究分析单位GDP能耗中心性居首，运输行业碳强度接近中心性突出，能源消费弹性系数中介中心性强，脉冲响应反映管理3E系统需重视对运输行业碳强度、单位GDP能耗的短期影响。最后基于研究结论为3E系统协调发展提出建议。

Abstract: In “Dual Carbon” context, as the world’s largest energy consumer and second-largest economy, China’s coordinated 3E system development is crucial. This study constructs a macro-level 3E system index with 1990~2024 data, uses a VAR model for dynamic mechanism analysis, and at the micro level, develops a causal network to identify key variables through centrality analysis while examining impulse effects. Findings show energy drives economic-environment changes, environmental regulations have little economic feedback, energy shocks cause short-term economic negative adjustments, and environmental policy impacts lag, with the 10-period response value only rising by 6.7%. At 5% significance, environmental factors are Granger causes for economic and energy systems. Centrality analysis shows energy consumption per unit of GDP and transportation sector carbon intensity are top priorities. Impulse response analysis highlights short-term 3E system effects on carbon intensity and transportation energy consumption per unit of GDP. Recommendations are given for enhancing 3E system coordinated development.