低碳经济发展模式下光伏发电企业价值评估研究——以金开新能为例

Study on Enterprise Value Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Generation under the Low-Carbon Economic Development Model—Taking Jinkai Xinneng as an Example

摘要: 随着全球能源体系向清洁低碳转型的进程不断深化，光伏发电作为新能源领域的核心板块，凭借其技术成熟度提升与成本下降的双重优势，已成为推动能源转型升级的关键力量。本文聚焦光伏发电企业价值评估的特殊性，突破传统仅基于现有资产价值的评估框架，构建改进的FCFF-BS模型，通过灰色模型预测企业营业收入，考虑各种不确定性因素和风险，体现企业现有价值；构造低碳竞争调整系数修正企业潜在价值，并以金开新能为例，综合分析使评估值与企业内在价值趋于一致。因此，本文提出构建“ESG-低碳技术”双轮驱动的价值提升路径，以新质生产力创新驱动发展来提升企业现有价值与潜在价值的对策建议。

Abstract: With the continuous deepening of the global energy system’s transformation towards cleanliness and low-carbon, photovoltaic power generation, as a core segment in the new energy field, has become a key force driving the energy transformation and upgrading, relying on the dual advantages of improved technological maturity and reduced costs. This paper focuses on the particularity of value evaluation for photovoltaic power generation enterprises, breaks through the traditional evaluation framework that only relies on the value of existing assets, and constructs an improved FCFF-BS model. It predicts the enterprise’s operating income through the grey model, takes various uncertain factors and risks into account, and reflects the enterprise’s existing value; constructs a low-carbon competition adjustment coefficient to modify the enterprise’s potential value, and takes Jinkai Xinneng as an example to conduct a comprehensive analysis, so as to make the evaluation value consistent with the enterprise’s intrinsic value. Therefore, this paper proposes to construct a “ESG-low-carbon technology” dual-drive path for value improvement, and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to enhance the enterprise’s existing value and potential value through the innovative drive of new-quality productive forces.