华东地区公路营运客运汽车碳排放量分析

Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Passenger Buses Operating on Highways in the East China Region

摘要: 我国交通运输业为积极响应国家“双碳”政策，在不同运输方式上有大量的研究分析。公路营运客运碳排放量一直都处于交通运输中占比较大的部分，因此本研究提出采用自下而上的方法单独计算营运客运汽车的二氧化碳排放量，并分别计算我国华北、华东等七大区域的二氧化碳排放量，最后针对营运客运汽车碳排放量最高的华东片区进行驱动因素的分解分析：构建包括源消耗量和营运客运汽车收入的驱动因素研究框架，并采用LMDI (对数平均迪氏指数法)分解模型分析了10个驱动因素的影响效益。根据模型分析得到2023年营运客运汽车中小型客运汽车的碳排放量占比较高。同时汽车保有量是正向驱动因素，能源效率是首要负向驱动因素。由此可见，华东地区的营运客运汽车二氧化碳减排应把重心放在提高燃油效率和减少车辆使用强度等方面。

Abstract: In order to actively respond to the country’s “dual carbon” policy, China’s transportation industry has conducted extensive research and analysis on different modes of transportation. Carbon emissions from road passenger transport operations have always accounted for a significant proportion of transportation emissions. Therefore, this study proposes using a bottom-up approach to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions of operational passenger vehicles separately, and calculates the carbon dioxide emissions in seven major regions of China, including North China and East China. Finally, a decomposition analysis of driving factors is conducted for the East China region, which has the highest carbon emissions from operational passenger vehicles. A research framework has been established that includes source consumption and operating revenues of passenger vehicles, and the LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) decomposition model is used to analyze the impact of 10 driving factors. According to the model analysis, in 2023, carbon emissions from small and medium-sized passenger vehicles in operation account for a high proportion. Vehicle ownership is identified as a positive driving factor, while energy efficiency is the primary negative driving factor. Therefore, carbon reduction for operational passenger vehicles in the East China region should focus on improving fuel efficiency and reducing vehicle usage intensity.