凯里市城市内涝防治设计重现期降雨量阈值研究

A Study on Rainfall Thresholds for Urban Waterlogging Prevention and Control in Kaili City Based on Return Period

摘要: 基于凯里市1960~2021年逐年最大日降水量和最大小时降水量数据，结合城市内涝受灾资料，采用重现期方法对城市排水与内涝防治标准进行分析。研究表明：地下商业广场排水设计标准对应10~20年一遇，日降水量阈值为163.2~197.6 mm，小时降水量阈值为65.4~72.1 mm；内涝防洪标准为20~30年一遇，相应日降水量达197.6~217.6 mm，小时降水量达72.1~75.8 mm。当日降水量超过163.2 mm或小时降水量超过65.4 mm时，中心城区地下通道、下沉式广场等易涝点内涝风险显著增加；达到197.6 mm和72.1 mm，则内涝灾害风险极高。研究成果有助于气象部门更好地开展气象保障服务工作，为城市内涝气象防灾减灾提供科学的参考依据。

Abstract: Based on the annual maximum daily precipitation and maximum hourly precipitation data for Kaili City from 1960 to 2021, combined with urban waterlogging disaster records, this study analyzes urban drainage and waterlogging prevention standards using the return period method. The results indicate that the drainage design standard for underground commercial plazas corresponds to a 10~20 year return period, with daily precipitation thresholds of 163.2~197.6 mm and hourly precipitation thresholds of 65.4~72.1 mm. The urban waterlogging flood control standard is set at a 20~30 year return period, with corresponding daily precipitation reaching 197.6~217.6 mm and hourly precipitation reaching 72.1~75.8 mm. When daily precipitation exceeds 163.2 mm or hourly precipitation exceeds 65.4 mm, the risk of waterlogging significantly increases at vulnerable locations such as underground passages and sunken plazas in the urban center. When precipitation reaches 197.6 mm (daily) or 72.1 mm (hourly), the risk of severe waterlogging disasters becomes extremely high. The findings of this study can help meteorological departments better provide meteorological support services and offer a scientific reference for urban waterlogging prevention and disaster mitigation.