数字乡村建设对农村电子商务发展的影响研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of Digital Village Construction on the Development of Rural E-Commerce—An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要: 本文旨在探讨数字乡村建设对农村电子商务发展的作用机制。基于2014~2022年30个省级行政单位的面板数据，利用投影寻踪方法构建数字乡村发展指数，并采用固定效应模型实证检验其对农村电商销售额的影响，同时引入人均收入水平的调节效应并控制交通与产业发展等因素。研究结果表明：数字乡村建设与农村电商发展存在相关性，但其单独作用并不稳定；收入水平显著调节两者关系，基础设施与信息化条件只有在居民收入较高时才能有效转化为电商红利；高供给地区和东部地区的协同效应更为突出，交通与产业发展在其中发挥关键支撑作用。本文认为，推动数字乡村建设需统筹收入提升、产业升级与区域均衡，促进需求侧消费扩张与供给侧能力提升的协同互动，以实现农村电商可持续发展与乡村振兴的良性循环。

Abstract: This study aims to explore the mechanism through which digital village construction influences the development of rural e-commerce. Based on panel data from 30 provincial-level administrative units in China from 2014 to 2022, a Digital Village Development Index is constructed using the projection pursuit method, and a fixed-effects model is employed to empirically examine its impact on rural e-commerce sales, while introducing the moderating effect of per capita income and controlling for transportation and industrial development factors. The results show that digital village construction and rural e-commerce development are significantly correlated, but the independent effect of digitalization remains unstable and exhibits pronounced heterogeneity across income levels, supply capacities, and regions. Income level significantly moderates their relationship, as infrastructure and information conditions can be effectively transformed into e-commerce dividends only in areas with higher household incomes. The synergistic effect is more prominent in high-supply and eastern regions, where transportation and industrial development play a key supporting role. It is therefore suggested that digital village construction should be promoted in coordination with income growth, industrial upgrading, and regional balance, fostering the joint enhancement of demand-side consumption and supply-side production capacity to achieve sustainable rural e-commerce development and a virtuous cycle of rural revitalization.