个税递延型养老产品是否促进了居民消费？

Does the Tax-Deferred Pension Product Promote Household Consumption?

摘要: 本文基于2012~2022年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，采用双重差分法(DID)实证研究个税递延型养老保险政策对居民消费的影响。研究发现：个税递延政策显著提升居民消费水平，税收优惠通过释放当期可支配收入激活消费动能。在收入维度，高收入群体消费显著提升；从金融素养方面来看，高金融素养群体消费显著增加，低素养群体无响应；在消费结构层面：政策显著刺激娱乐型消费，对生存型消费无影响，发展型消费正向但不显著。结合个人养老金的发展现状，建议通过分层税收激励、破解流动性约束、产品创新及金融教育优化制度设计，实现“养老储备–当期消费”协同发展。

Abstract: Based on the data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2012 to 2022, this paper empirically examines the impact of the tax-deferred commercial pension insurance policy on household consumption using the difference-in-differences (DID) method. The study finds that the tax-deferred policy significantly boosts household consumption levels, as tax incentives release disposable income in the current period, thereby stimulating consumption momentum. In terms of income dimension, consumption among high-income groups increases significantly. From the perspective of financial literacy, consumption significantly rises among groups with high financial literacy, while groups with low financial literacy show no response. At the consumption structure level, the policy significantly stimulates recreational consumption, has no impact on survival consumption, and shows a positive but insignificant effect on developmental consumption. Considering the current development of personal pensions, it is recommended to optimize the system design through tiered tax incentives, addressing liquidity constraints, product innovation, and financial education to achieve coordinated development of “pension reserves and current consumption”.