清洁供暖对大气污染的影响——来自中国北方地区的证据
The Impact of Clean Heating on Air Pollution—Evidence from Northern China
DOI: 10.12677/jlce.2025.144038, PDF,   
作者: 郭晓鹏, 李雄英：广东财经大学统计与数据科学学院，广东 广州；周君佐：广东财经大学教务处，广东 广州
关键词: 清洁供暖；大气污染；双重差分法；双向固定效应模型；Clean Heating； Air Pollution； Difference-In-Differences； Two-Way Fixed Effects Model
摘要: 清洁供暖有望在减少大气污染中发挥重要作用。然而，目前关于清洁供暖与大气污染的实证研究较为欠缺。鉴于此，本文以《北方地区冬季清洁供暖计划》(NCH)的实施为例，利用中国2012~2021年282个地级市的数据，实证探讨清洁供暖与大气污染的关系。实证表明：NCH可以显著减少SO2污染约20.0%,而可以减少PM2.5约35.5%；该结论经平行趋势检验和安慰剂检验后依旧显著；异质性分析表明NCH政策的实施效果在东西部地区更为显著。本文的研究可以揭示清洁供暖与大气污染的关系，并为政府制定更好地清洁供暖政策提供科学依据。
Abstract: Clean heating is expected to play an important role in reducing air pollution. However, there is currently a lack of empirical research on the relationship between clean heating and air pollution. In view of this, this article takes the implementation of the Plan for Cleaner Winter Heating in Northern Region (NCH) as an example and uses data from 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2012 to 2021 to empirically explore the relationship between clean heating and air pollution. Empirical evidence shows that NCH can significantly reduce SO2 pollution by about 20.0% and PM2.5 pollution by about 35.5%, which remains significant after parallel trend testing and placebo testing; Heterogeneity analysis shows that the implementation effect of NCH policy is more significant in the eastern and western regions. This study can reveal the relationship between clean heating and air pollution, and provide a scientific basis for the government to formulate better clean heating policies.
文章引用：郭晓鹏, 李雄英, 周君佐. 清洁供暖对大气污染的影响——来自中国北方地区的证据[J]. 低碳经济, 2025, 14(4): 367-375. https://doi.org/10.12677/jlce.2025.144038

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