碳交易政策推动火电行业碳减排的效应测度

Measuring the Effect of Carbon Trading Policy on Carbon Emission Reduction in the Thermal Power Industry

摘要: 碳交易政策是实现火电行业碳减排目标的重要市场化手段。为测度碳交易政策是否对火电行业具有碳减排效用，本文基于2006~2022年省级面板数据，运用多时点双重差分模型测度碳交易试点政策对火电行业碳减排效应。研究发现，碳交易政策能显著促进火电行业碳减排，具体体现在政策实施后试点地区火电行业碳排放量较非试点地区减少12.5%，但其效应存在滞后性，且安慰剂检验、倾向得分匹配–双重差分法和更改样本期等稳健性检验验证了结果可靠。该研究为完善碳市场机制助力火电行业减排提供了实证依据与政策参考。

Abstract: The carbon trading policy is an important market-based instrument for achieving the carbon emission reduction targets of the thermal power industry. To measure whether the carbon trading policy has a carbon-reducing effect on the thermal power industry, this paper employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to measure the carbon-reducing effect of the carbon trading pilot policy on the thermal power industry based on provincial panel data from 2006 to 2022. The study finds that the carbon trading policy can significantly promote carbon emission reduction in the thermal power industry. Specifically, after the policy is implemented, the carbon emissions of the thermal power industry in pilot regions are reduced by 12.5% compared with non-pilot regions. However, its effect is lagged. Robustness tests, including placebo tests, propensity score matching-difference-in-differences method, and changing the sample period, verify the reliability of the results. This study provides empirical evidence and policy references for improving the carbon market mechanism to assist carbon emission reduction in the thermal power industry.