电子商务对农村居民消费的影响机制与异质性研究——基于贵州省的经验证据

Research on the Impact Mechanism and Heterogeneity of E-Commerce on Rural Residents’ Consumption—Based on Empirical Evidence from Guizhou Province

摘要: 发展农村电子商务是推动乡村振兴、实现共同富裕的重要战略举措。本研究基于贵州省2013~2023年的时间序列数据，通过构建协整回归模型、误差修正模型及调节效应模型，实证检验了电子商务发展对农村居民消费水平与结构的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：(1) 电子商务对农村居民消费的直接促进效应不显著，但其通过显著提升农村居民收入对消费产生了积极的间接影响，存在“增收到促消”的传导路径；(2) 电子商务对消费结构升级的影响具有明显的“类别异质性”，其对教育文化娱乐等“纯升级型”数字消费具有显著的促进作用，但对交通通信等“混合型”消费的影响不显著；(3) 电子商务的影响存在“普惠效应”，即其对低收入农村居民消费的边际促进效应显著强于高收入群体，呈现出“边际效益递减”的特征。本研究揭示了电子商务影响农村消费的间接性、结构性和普惠性机制，为理解数字经济的乡村振兴效应提供了新的经验证据。研究结论表明，政策制定应着眼于通过电商促进农民持续增收，并精准赋能低收入群体与数字消费领域，以充分释放电子商务在激发农村消费潜力、推动共同富裕中的效能。

Abstract: Developing rural e-commerce is a crucial strategic measure to promote rural revitalization and achieve common prosperity. Based on time series data from 2013 to 2023 in Guizhou Province, this study empirically examines the impact of e-commerce development on the consumption level and structure of rural residents and its mechanism of action by constructing a cointegration regression model, an error correction model, and a moderating effect model. The findings reveal that: (1) the direct promotional effect of e-commerce on rural residents’ consumption is not significant, but it has a positive indirect impact on consumption through significantly increasing rural residents’ income, exhibiting a transmission path of “income increase to consumption promotion”; (2) the impact of e-commerce on the upgrading of consumption structure demonstrates notable “category heterogeneity”. It significantly promotes “pure upgrading” digital consumption in areas such as education, culture, and entertainment, but has an insignificant effect on “mixed” consumption in areas like transportation and communication; (3) the impact of e-commerce exhibits a “inclusive effect”, meaning its marginal promotional effect on the consumption of low-income rural residents is significantly stronger than that on high-income groups, showing a characteristic of “diminishing marginal returns”. This study uncovers the indirect, structural, and inclusive mechanisms through which e-commerce affects rural consumption, providing new empirical evidence for understanding the rural revitalization effect of the digital economy. The research conclusion suggests that policy formulation should focus on promoting sustained income growth among farmers through e-commerce and precisely empowering low-income groups and the digital consumption sector, in order to fully unleash the potential of e-commerce in stimulating rural consumption and promoting common prosperity.