山东省县域海岸带韧性时空格局演变及影响因素研究

Study on the Temporal and Spatial Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of County-Level Coastal Zone Resilience in Shandong Province

摘要: 海岸带作为社会–自然耦合系统，其人地系统韧性演变对可持续发展具有重要意义。本文以山东省34个沿海区县为研究对象，基于2005~2022年长时序数据，从“人”“地”“人地冲突”三个维度构建评价指标体系，运用可变模糊识别模型与障碍度模型，探究海岸带人地系统韧性的时空格局演变及影响因素。结果表明：1) 时序上，研究期内山东省沿海区县韧性水平整体呈波动上升趋势，2015年后进入加速提升阶段；空间上，高韧性区县集中于青岛核心区域，烟台、威海部分区县因环境承载力与政策调整限制，韧性提升滞后，形成“东高西低、南快北缓”的梯度格局。2) 障碍度分析显示，系统层障碍度呈“人 > 人地冲突 > 地”的上升态势，指标层主导障碍因子从2005~2015年的风暴潮发生频次转变为2020~2022年的生活垃圾无害化处理率，港口货物吞吐量持续为关键障碍因子。研究可为优化海岸带治理策略、平衡生态保护与经济发展提供理论支撑，丰富人地系统韧性研究的微观尺度实证案例。

Abstract: As a social-ecological coupled system, coastal zone human-land system resilience evolution is critical for sustainable development. This study examines 34 coastal counties in Shandong Province (2005~2022), constructing an evaluation framework across “human”, “land” and “human-land conflict” dimensions using variable fuzzy recognition and obstacle degree models. Results show: 1) Temporally, resilience exhibited fluctuating growth with accelerated improvement post-2015. Spatially, high-resilience areas concentrated in Qingdao’s core, while Yantai and Weihai counties lagged due to environmental carrying capacity and policy constraints, forming an “east-high-west-low, south-fast-north-slow” gradient. 2) Obstacle degree analysis reveals system-level barriers in ascending order: “human > human-land conflict > land”. Dominant factors shifted from storm surge frequency (2005~2015) to domestic waste treatment rate (2020~2022), with port cargo throughput remaining a key constraint. This research provides theoretical support for coastal governance optimization and ecological-economic balance, enriching micro-scale empirical studies on human-land system resilience.