人民币汇率波动与国际化进程的动态关系研究

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Process of Internationalization

摘要: 近年来，我国经济的快速发展使得我国的综合国力显著提升，这推动了我国与世界经济的交流，跨境贸易规模持续扩大、国际资金流动的效率也不断提高，这些为人民币在国际上的使用创造了条件。本文通过梳理和归纳汇率波动和货币国际化的理论关系，进而实证检验两者之间的内在关系，最终为推动人民币国际化提出相应的政策建议。本文首先通过文献梳理货币国际化理论，明确研究的理论基础，再结合已有研究和数据的可得性，确定能够衡量人民币汇率波动和人民币国际化的核心指标。再构建向量自回归模型进行实证分析，确保研究结论的科学性和可靠性。研究得出的核心结论：第一，人民币国际化是一个长期的、渐进的过程，受到许多因素的影响，人民币成为真正的国际化货币还有很长的路要走。第二，汇率波动的变化对人民币国际化的进程会产生阻碍的作用。

Abstract: In recent years, the rapid development of China’s economy has significantly enhanced its comprehensive national strength, which has promoted the exchange between China and the world economy. The scale of cross-border trade has continued to expand, and the efficiency of international capital flows has also been constantly improving. These have created conditions for the use of the RMB in the international arena. This paper first sorts out and summarizes the theoretical relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and currency internationalization, and then empirically examines the intrinsic relationship between the two. Finally, it puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for promoting the internationalization of the RMB. This paper first reviews the literature on currency internationalization theory to clarify the theoretical basis of the research. Then, based on the availability of existing research and data, it determines the core indicators that can measure the fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate and the internationalization of the RMB. A vector autoregression model is then constructed for empirical analysis to ensure the scientificity and reliability of the research conclusions. The core conclusions drawn from the research are as follows: First, the internationalization of the RMB is a long-term and gradual process, influenced by many factors. There is still a long way to go for the RMB to become a truly international currency. Second, changes in exchange rate fluctuations will have an obstructive effect on the process of RMB internationalization.