人工智能、创新与服务出口技术复杂度

Artificial Intelligence, Innovation, and the Technological Complexity of Service Exports

摘要: 人工智能飞速发展，我国服务贸易仍有较大的进步空间，服务出口技术复杂度重要性日趋增强。本文构建服务行业出口技术复杂度，基于2017~2023年42个国家的面板数据，采用固定效应模型探讨人工智能对服务出口技术复杂度的影响，同时探讨研发在其中的调节效应。研究表明，人工智能对服务出口技术复杂度具有正向影响，经过替换解释变量、分位数回归后，结果依然稳健；一国创新水平能够正向调节人工智能对服务出口技术复杂度的促进效应。基于研究结果，本文认为应该实施智能赋能专项、强化研发投入的杠杆效应、优化数字基建战略，推动中国服务贸易“做大做强”。

Abstract: With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, there is still significant room for improvement in China’s service trade, and the importance of technological complexity in service exports is increasing. This paper constructs a measure of technological complexity in the service industry exports and, based on panel data from 42 countries from 2017 to 2023, uses a fixed effects model to explore the impact of artificial intelligence on the technological complexity of service exports, as well as the moderating effect of research and development. The study shows that artificial intelligence has a positive effect on the technological complexity of service exports. The results remain robust after replacing explanatory variables and using quantile regression. A country’s level of innovation can positively moderate the promotion effect of artificial intelligence on the technological complexity of service exports. Based on these findings, this paper suggests implementing targeted AI empowerment initiatives, strengthening the leverage effect of R & D investment, and optimizing digital infrastructure strategies to promote the growth and strengthening of China’s service trade.