农村电商对农民增收的影响：基于贵州省的实证分析

The Impact of Rural E-Commerce on Farmers’ Income: An Empirical Analysis Based on Guizhou Province

摘要: 本研究聚焦特定系统多年耦合协调情况，为促进农村电商与农民增收协调发展，选取相关电商发展的10项、农民增收的5项指标，构建综合评价体系，基于2014~2023年贵州省相关数据，用综合指数、耦合度模型和灰色关联模型，量化二者关系与动态趋势。研究显示，农村电商与农民增收系统二者之间联系愈发紧密且持续优化，耦合协调度由严重失调提升至良好协调但未达优质水平，目前仍有提升空间，需深度融合以达更优发展。其次根据灰色关联度分析得到，农村投递路线、移动电话用户数与农民收入关联最强，宽带与电商销售额关联较弱但潜力大。最后，依据分析结果提出完善农村物流、推进数字乡村建设、发展农村服务业以促进高质量发展的对策建议。

Abstract: This study focuses on the multi-year coupling and coordination of a specific system to promote the coordinated development of rural e-commerce and farmers’ income growth. By selecting 10 indicators related to e-commerce development and 5 indicators related to farmers’ income growth, a comprehensive evaluation system was constructed. Based on the relevant data of Guizhou Province from 2014 to 2023, the comprehensive index, coupling degree model, and grey correlation model were used to quantify the relationship and dynamic trends between the two. The research shows that the connection between the rural e-commerce and farmers’ income growth systems has become increasingly close and continuously optimized. The coupling coordination degree has improved from severe imbalance to good coordination but has not yet reached an excellent level. There is still room for improvement, and deep integration is needed to achieve better development. Secondly, according to the grey correlation degree analysis, the rural delivery routes and the number of mobile phone users have the strongest correlation with farmers’ income, while broadband and e-commerce sales volume have a relatively weak correlation but great potential. Finally, based on the analysis results, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to improve rural logistics, promote the construction of digital villages, and develop rural services to promote high-quality development.