近64a锦屏县高温特征及其对农业的影响

High Temperature Characteristics of Jinping County in Recent 64 Years and Their Impact on Agriculture

摘要: 为深入了解贵州省黔东南州锦屏县夏季高温变化特征以及对农业生产的影响，基于1961~2024年锦屏县国家气象站观测的气温数据，采用线性趋势分析、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall突变检验和滑动t检验等方法，系统分析了近64a来锦屏县夏季高温的时空演变特征及其突变规律，并探讨其对农业生产的影响。结果表明：锦屏县年平均气温呈显著上升趋势(0.146℃/10a)，极端最低气温以0.40℃/10a增长率上升，低温日数以1.306 d/10a的趋势减少，极端最高气温以0.204℃/10a速率升高，高温日数以1.315 d/10a显著增加；突变分析显示，极端最低气温在1979年前后发生增暖转折，而平均气温和极端最高气温均在2002年前后发生显著增暖转折。高温频发对水稻、玉米等主要农作物生长构成威胁，表现为高温热害加剧、生育期提前、病虫害风险上升等问题，研究结果可为区域农业适应气候变化提供科学依据。

Abstract: To gain a deeper understanding of the characteristics of summer high-temperature variations and their impacts on agricultural production in Jinping County, Qiandongnan Prefecture, Guizhou Province, this study analyzes temperature data from the Jinping National Meteorological Station for the period 1961~2024. Using methods including linear trend analysis, moving average, Mann-Kendall abrupt change test, and sliding t-test, the spatiotemporal evolution and abrupt changes in summer high temperatures over the past 64 years are systematically examined, and their implications for agriculture are discussed. Results show that the annual mean temperature has increased significantly at a rate of 0.146˚C per decade. The extreme minimum temperature has risen at a rate of 0.40˚C per decade, accompanied by a decrease in the number of low-temperature days at 1.306 days per decade. Meanwhile, the extreme maximum temperature has increased at 0.204˚C per decade, and the number of high-temperature days has significantly increased by 1.315 days per decade. Abrupt change analysis reveals that the extreme minimum temperature underwent a warming shift around 1979, while both the mean temperature and extreme maximum temperature experienced significant warming transitions around 2002. The increasing frequency of high-temperature events poses serious threats to major crops such as rice and maize, manifesting as intensified heat stress, advanced phenological stages, and elevated risks of pests and diseases. These findings provide a scientific basis for regional agricultural adaptation to climate change.