成都天府机场历年降雨量及各跑道端时空分布特征分析

Analysis of Annual Rainfall and Spatio-Temporal Distribution Characteristics at Each Runway End of Chengdu Tianfu Airport

摘要: 本文基于成都天府机场历年例行观测与各跑道端自动观测资料，分析了机场及各跑道端降水量的时空分布规律、变化趋势及极端降水风险。研究发现：天府机场降水年际变化显著，降水量呈“波峰波谷”型变化，旱涝急转特征明显。降水强度呈现“极化”趋势，并形成“总量减少、强度增强、季节前移”的新模式。极端降水事件具有高度的季节集中性，78%发生于夏季(6~8月)。空间上，各跑道端降水量变化趋势基本一致，表明降水事件具有显著的区域一致性特征，但极端降水风险不可忽视。其中11号跑道端降水变率与极端降水概率相对最高。结论对天府机场汛期防汛重点时段划定、跑道运行安全及灾害性天气预警策略制定具有一定参考意义。

Abstract: Based on historical routine observations and automated weather data from each runway end at Chengdu Tianfu Airport, this study analyzes the spatio-temporal distribution patterns, variation trends, and extreme precipitation risks of rainfall at the airport and its runway ends. The results show that Tianfu Airport experiences significant interannual rainfall variability, characterized by a “peak-trough” pattern with abrupt transitions between drought and flood. Rainfall intensity exhibits a “polarization” trend, forming a new pattern of “decreasing total amount, increasing intensity, and earlier seasonal occurrence.” Extreme precipitation events are highly concentrated seasonally, with 78% occurring in summer (June~August). Spatially, the rainfall trends at all runway ends are generally consistent, indicating significant regional coherence in precipitation events. However, the risk of extreme precipitation cannot be ignored, with the highest variability and probability of extreme rainfall observed at the Runway 11 end. The conclusions provide a reference for determining key flood control periods during the flood season, ensuring runway operational safety, and developing early warning strategies for severe weather at Tianfu Airport.