新疆昌吉市冬季静稳天气综合指数的建立及在预报中的应用

Establishment of Winter Stable Weather Comprehensive Index in Changji, Xinjiang and Its Application in Forecasting

摘要: 静稳天气与大气污染的发生、发展有着密切联系，为定量描述昌吉市冬季大气的静稳程度，文章综合考虑T_925hPa-2T、T_850hPa-2T、850 hPa相对湿度、海平面气压、10 m风速、925 hPa风速、24 h变温、24 h变压等气象因子，通过历史样本统计划分阈值范围再权重求和构建了静稳天气综合指数，经过回算实况检验，分析所建静稳天气综合指数与污染天气的对应关系，应用到冬季重污染天气成因分析和空气质量预报方面。结果表明：(1) 静稳天气综合指数可以综合反映大气静稳程度，与PM_2.5质量浓度相关性较好；(2) 静稳天气综合指数可用于判断昌吉市冬季重度污染及以上天气的成因；(3) 静稳天气综合指数对空气质量预报有很好的指导作用，可提高短期和中期的预报质量。

Abstract: The stable weather is closely related to the occurrence and development of air pollution. In order to quantitatively describe the stable stability of the atmosphere in winter of Changji City, this paper comprehensively considers the meteorological factors such as T_925hPa-2T、T_850hPa-2T、850 hPa relative humidity, sea level pressure, 10m wind speed, 925 hPa wind speed, 24-hour variable temperature and 24-hour variable pressure, divides the threshold range through historical sample statistics, and then calculates the weight to construct the static weather comprehensive index. Through the back calculation and actual test, the corresponding relationship between the static and stable weather index and the polluted weather is analyzed, which is applied to the cause analysis of heavy pollution weather in winter and air quality prediction. The results show that: (1) The stable weather index can comprehensively reflect the atmospheric static stability, which is similar to PM_2.5; (2) The stable weather index can be used to judge the causes of severe pollution and above weather in winter of Changji; (3) The stable weather index has a good guiding effect on air quality prediction and can improve the quality of short-term and medium-term prediction.