工程决策方法如何优化司法裁判？——以396份公共安全视频监控判决书为例

How Engineering Decision-Making Methods Optimize Judicial Decisions?—Evidence from 396 Public Safety Video Surveillance Cases

摘要: 司法裁判面临法律适用条件结构性模糊的困境。为探索工程决策方法如何优化司法裁判，本研究以396份公共安全视频监控判决书为实证样本，引入DEMATEL-AHP混合模型进行系统分析。研究构建了“法律要件解构–数据挖掘–因果识别–权重测度”的工程化路径，将抽象法律问题转化为可计算的结构化模型。实证结果显示：法律适用系统呈现“程序驱动实体”的网络结构，其中程序合规性虽仅占问题比例的5.56%，却是关键驱动要素(原因度2.6574)。本研究证实工程决策方法能通过量化要素关联、识别隐性因果关系、优化权重分配三大路径优化司法裁判，为提升裁判一致性提供了可操作的方法论框架。

Abstract: Judicial adjudication faces the dilemma of structural ambiguity in legal application conditions. To explore how engineering decision-making methods can optimize judicial adjudication, this study conducts a systematic analysis of 396 judgments concerning public safety video surveillance, employing a DEMATEL-AHP hybrid model. The research develops an engineering-based approach—“legal element deconstruction, data mining, causal identification, and weight measurement”—to transform abstract legal issues into computable structured models. Empirical results reveal that the legal application system exhibits a “procedure-driven substance” network structure. Within this network, procedural compliance, despite being contested in only 5.56% of cases, emerges as the key driving element (with a net causal effect of 2.6574). This study demonstrates that engineering decision-making methods can optimize judicial adjudication through three pathways: quantifying element correlations, identifying implicit causal relationships, and optimizing weight allocation, providing a practical methodological framework for enhancing adjudication consistency.