新疆温泉博尔塔拉河国家湿地公园植被覆盖的时空变化及其对气候因子的响应关系

The Vegetation Coverage of Xinjiang Hot Spring Bortala River National Wetland Park

摘要: 基于空间分辨率为250 m的MODIS 13Q1影像，通过对影像逐像元信息的提取和分析，结合相应的气象资料，运用Sen-MK趋势分析、Hurst指数和相关性分析法，研究了2000~2023年新疆温泉博尔塔拉河国家湿地公园植被覆盖的时空变化趋势及其与气候因子的相关性，结果表明：(1) 时间上，NDVI呈显著波动上升趋势，中高和高覆盖度植被持续扩大，生态质量明显改善。空间上，NDVI分布呈现明显异质性，高值区集中在中东部湿地核心区，低值区主要分布在北部河流源头。(2) 2000~2022年，研究区NDVI总体呈微弱上升趋势(0.003/a)显著改善区域集中于湿地公园中东部(41.1%)，而54.04%区域变化不显著。未来植被变化以“反持续性”为主；13.4%区域或持续改善，退化风险区仅占4.74%，建议实施分区保护策略。(3) 气候因子对NDVI影响显著，且存在显著空间异质性和局部反常相关，北部干旱区植被主要受降水控制(r = 0.3~0.6)，南部沿河区则更依赖温度(r = 0.1~0.5)。

Abstract: Based on the MODIS 13Q1 image with a spatial resolution of 250 m, through the extraction and analysis of the pixel-by-pixel information of the image, combined with the corresponding meteorological data, the Sen-MK trend analysis, Hurst index and correlation analysis method were used to study the spatial and temporal variation trend of vegetation coverage and its correlation with climatic factors in Xinjiang Hot Spring Bortala River National Wetland Park from 2000 to 2023. The results showed that: (1) In time, NDVI showed a significant fluctuation and upward trend, and the middle and high coverage vegetation continued to expand, and the ecological quality was significantly improved. Spatially, the distribution of NDVI showed obvious heterogeneity. The high value area was concentrated in the core area of the wetland in the middle and east, and the low value area was mainly distributed in the source of the northern river. (2) From 2000 to 2022, NDVI in the study area showed a slight upward trend (0.003/a), and the significant improvement areas were concentrated in the middle and east of the wetland park (41.1%), while 54.04 % of the areas did not change significantly. The future vegetation change is mainly “anti-sustainability”; 13.4% of the area or continuous improvement, the degradation risk area accounted for only 4.74 %, it is recommended to implement the zoning protection strategy. (3) Climatic factors have a significant impact on NDVI, and there are significant spatial heterogeneity and local anomalous correlation. The vegetation in the northern arid area is mainly controlled by precipitation (r = 0.3~0.6), while the southern riverside area is more dependent on temperature (r = 0.1~0.5).