影响中国人口出生率的经济、社会与环境因素实证研究

Empirical Study on Economic, Social, and Environmental Factors Affecting China’s Birth Rate

摘要: 中国人口出生率持续下降需远忧近虑。本文综合纳入结婚离婚、收入水平、社会保障、住房教育医疗经济压力、环境污染、教育覆盖、生育政策等诸多因素，运用四轮次向前向后协整回归分析法，估算各因素对人口出生率的边际影响和平均影响。结果发现：提高人们的可支配收入，增加基本养老保险基金支出，提升城镇化质量，改善医疗保健条件等因素正向提高人口出生率水平，结婚对数减少、住房教育医疗支出、生育限制政策显著抑制了人口出生率水平，但离婚和环境指标回归结果与理论预期不一致，原因可能与指标同时具有正反效应有关。最后，相应给出政策建议和研究前瞻。

Abstract: The continuous decline of China’s birth rate needs to be worried far and near. This article comprehensively incorporates many factors such as marriage and divorce, income level, social security, housing, education, medical and economic pressure, environmental pollution, education coverage, and fertility policies. Using a four round forward backward cointegration regression analysis method, the marginal and average impacts of each factor on the birth rate are estimated. The results showed that factors such as increasing people’s disposable income, increasing basic pension insurance fund expenditures, improving urbanization quality, and improving healthcare conditions positively increased the level of birth rate. The reduction in the number of marriages, housing, education, and healthcare expenditures, and birth restriction policies significantly suppressed the level of birth rate. However, the regression results of divorce and environmental indicators were inconsistent with theoretical expectations, which may be related to the fact that the indicators have both positive and negative effects. Finally, corresponding policy recommendations and research prospects are provided.