2024年9月29日丹江口水库流域暴雨成因分析

Analysis of the Causes of the Rainstorm in the Danjiangkou Reservoir Basin on September 29, 2024

摘要: 2024年9月29日丹江口水库流域出现了一次暴雨天气，强降雨落区出现在白河以上区域，此次暴雨发生在前期干旱的气候背景下——2024年8月1日~9月28日，该流域平均降水量较历史同期偏少64%。本文利用常规气象观测资料、FNL资料与风云气象卫星资料，采用天气学诊断方法，对此次暴雨进行了分析，结果表明：700 hpa水汽通量辐合中心早于暴雨出现6个小时，850 hPa能量锋与K指数大值区的重叠为短时强降水提供了有利能量条件。

Abstract: On September 29, 2024, a heavy rain event occurred in the Danjiangkou Reservoir Basin, with the heavy rainfall area located above the Baihe River. This heavy rain happened against the background of a previous drought—from August 1 to September 28, 2024, the average precipitation in this basin was 64% less than the historical average for the same period. This study analyzes this heavy rain event based on conventional meteorological observation data, FNL data, and FY meteorological satellite data, and by applying synoptic diagnostic methods. The results show that the 700 hPa water vapor flux convergence center appeared 6 hours earlier than the heavy rain, and the overlap between the 850 hPa energy front and the high-value area of the K-index provided favorable energy conditions for short-term heavy rainfall.