近64a年新疆塔城地区汛期极端降水指数突变特征分析

Analysis of Mutation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Index in Flood Season in Tacheng Area of Xinjiang in Recent 64 Years

摘要: 利用近64年(1960~2023年)新疆塔城地区7个气象观测站汛期(5~9月)逐日、月、年降水实况资料，采用世界气象组织推荐的11个极端降水指数，使用Mann-Kendall突变检验方法分别讨论了塔城地区及三个气候区各极端降水指数序列的突变，并确定突变时间，结果表明：① 近64a塔城地区汛期极端降水指数序列基本在1960年代初期或中期至1970年代初期或末期、1980年代中期或末期至21世纪初年中期或末期发生了由少到多的突变，其中RX1day、RX5day、R10、R20、R99P、PRCPFOT序列在1970年代初期或中期至1980年代初期或中期，SDII、R50序列在1970年代初期至末期，CDD、CWD序列在1960年代初期至中期，R95P序列在1970年代中期至1980年代初、1980年代中期至1990年代初期均发生了由多到少的突变；除CDD、CWD序列外，其余各极端降水指数突变点各不相同。② 盆地RX1day、CWD、R99P、R50、R99P序列在1960年代初期至末期、1970年代中期至21世纪初年中期，RX5day、SDII、PRCPFOT、R10、R20、R95P序列在1960年代初期至1970年代初期、1980年代中期至21世纪初年中期，R10、R20在2000年代初期至21世纪初年中期，R95P序列在1990年代初期至21世纪初年中期均发生过由少到多的突变；盆地RX1day、R20序列在1970年代初期至中期，RX5day、SDII、R50、PRCPFOT序列在1970年代初期至1980年代中期，R10、R95P序列1970年代初期至1990年代初期，CDD序列在1960年代初期至中期，CWD、R99P序列在1960年代末期至1970年代中期均发生过由多到少的突变；除R50、CDD、CWD序列无突变点外，其余各极端降水指数突变点各不相同。③ 南部RX1day、RX5day、SDII、R10、R20、CDD、CWD、R95P、R99P、PRCPFOT序列在1960年代中期至1970年代中期、RX1day、R20序列在1980年代中期至末期、RX1day序列在1990年代末期至21世纪初年末期、RX5day、SDII、CWD序列在1980年代初期至1990年代末期、RX5day、R20序列在21世纪初年中期至末期、R10、R95P、R99P、PRCPFOT序列在1980年代初期或中期至21世纪初年中期或末期发生过由少到多的突变；RX5day、R50、CDD、PRCPFOT序列在1960年代初期或中期至1970年代初期或末期、RX1day、SDII、R10、R20、R95P、R99P、CDD、CWD序列在1970年代中期或初期至1980年代初期或中期、RX1day、RX5day序列在1980年代初期或末期至1990年代中期或末期、RX5day、CWD序列在1990年代末期至21世纪初年初期或中期、末期发生了由多到少的突变。除R50序列无突变点外，其余各极端降水指数突变点各不相同。④ 中部RX1day、CDD、R10、R20、R50、CWD序列在1960年代初期或中期至1970年代初期或末期，RX5day、SDII序列在1960年代初期至1980年代初期、CDD、R99P、R99P序列在1970年代初期至1980年代初期、RX1day、R95P序列在1970年代初期或中期至21世纪初年初期、R10序列在1990年代初期至2000年代初期、RX5day、SDII、CDD序列在1990年代初期至21世纪初年中期或末期发生了由多到少的突变；CWD序列在1960年代中期至1970年代中期、1980年代初至1990年代末期发生过由少到多的突变；中部R10、CDD、CWD、R95P、R99P、PRCPFOT序列在1960年代初或末期至1970年代初期、RX5day、SDII、CDD序列在1980年代初期至1990年代初期，R99P、PRCPFOT序列1980年代初期至21世纪初年末期，R10序列在2000年代初期至21世纪初年末期，RX1day、RX5day、R95P序列在21世纪初年初期或中期至末期发生了由少到多的突变；除R10、R50、CWD序列无突变点外，其余各极端降水指数突变点各不相同。

Abstract: Based on the precipitation data in flood season (May~September) of 7 meteorological observation stations in Tacheng area of Xinjiang in recent 64 years (1960~2023), and 11 extreme precipitation indexes recommended by the World Meteorological Organization, the Mutation of each extreme precipitation index series in Tacheng area and three climate zones were discussed by Mann-Kendall Mutation test method, and the Mutation time was determined. The results show that: ① The extreme precipitation index series in flood season in Tacheng area in recent 64 years basically changed from less to more from the early or middle 1960s to the early or late 1970s, and from the middle or late 1980s to the middle or late 21st century, among which RXDay, RXDay, R10, R20, R99P and PRCPFOT series changed from the early or middle 1970s to the early or middle 1980s. From the early 1970s to the late 1970s, SDII and R50 sequences, CDD and CWD sequences from the early 1960s to the mid-1960s, and R95P sequences from the mid-1970s to the early 1980s, and from the early 1980s to the early 1990s, all experienced mutations from more to less. Except for CDD and CWD sequences, the mutation points of other extreme precipitation indexes are different. ② The RX1day, CWD, R99P, R50 and R99P sequences in the basin are from the early 1960s to the middle (end), from the late 1970s to the early 21st century, and the RX5day, SDII, PRCPFOT, R10, R20 and R95P sequences are from the early 1960s to the early 1970s and 1980s. The RXDay and R20 sequences in the basin are from the early 1970s to the mid-1970s, the RXDay, SDII, R50 and PRCPFOT sequences are from the early 1970s to the early 1980s, the R10 and R95P sequences are from the early 1970s to the early 1990s, the CDD sequences are from the early 1960s to the mid-1960s, and the CWD and R99P sequences are from the late 1960s. Except for R50, CDD and CWD sequences, the mutation points of other extreme precipitation indexes are different. ③ The southern RX1day, RX5day, SDII, R10, R20, CDD, CWD, R95P, R99P and PRCPFOT sequences are in the middle of 1960s to the early (middle) 1970s, RX1day and R20 sequences are in the early (middle) 1980s to the late, and RX1day sequences are in the late 1990s to the early 21st century. From the early 1980s to the end of 1990s, CWD sequences, RX5day and R20 sequences, R10, R95P, R99P and PRCPFOT sequences have undergone from few to many mutations in the early 1980s to the middle or end of the 21st century. RX5day, R50, CDD and PRCPFOT sequences in the early or middle 1960s to the early or late 1970s, RX1day, SDII, R10, R20, R95P, R99P, CDD and CWD sequences in the middle or early 1970s to the early or middle 1980s, and RX1day and RX5day sequences in the early or late 1980s. Except for the R50 sequence, there is no mutation point, and the other extreme precipitation index mutation points are different. ④ The sequence of RX1day, CDD, R10, R20, R50 and CWD in the middle of the 1960s to the early or late 1970s, RX5day and SDII sequences from the early 1960s to the early 1980s, CDD, R99P and R99P sequences from the early 1970s to the early 1980s, RX1day and R95P sequences from the early or middle 1970s to the early 21st century, R10 sequences from the early 1990s to the early 2000s, RX5day, SDII and CDD sequences from the early 1990s. CWD sequence changed from less to more in the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s and from the early 1980s to the late 1990s. The sequences of R10, CDD, CWD, R95P, R99P and PRCPFOT in the middle are from the early or late 1960s to the early 1970s, RX5day, SDII and CDD are from the early 1980s to the early 1990s, R99P and PRCPFOT are from the early 1980s to the late 21st century, and R10 is from the early 2000s to the early 21st century. Except for R10, R50 and CWD sequences, the mutation points of other extreme precipitation indexes are different.