碳税政策对经济增长的动态影响——基于多部门DSGE模型的实证研究

The Dynamic Impact of Carbon Tax Policies on Economic Growth—Empirical Research Based on the Multi-Department DSGE Model

摘要: 本文基于多部门动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型，研究碳税政策对经济增长与碳排放的动态影响。通过构建包含家庭、企业、政府、环境等多部门的理论框架，校准参数并模拟不同碳税政策情景，分析其宏观经济效应。研究表明，碳税政策短期抑制投资与消费，但优化税收返还机制可缓解影响；长期则能推动产业结构优化与清洁技术进步，实现减排与增长双赢。经济增长与环境质量呈“短期权衡、长期协同”特征。本研究为“双碳”目标下提升碳税政策设计科学性、保障实施协同性提供理论依据与政策参考。

Abstract: This paper studies the dynamic impact of carbon tax policies on economic growth and carbon emissions based on a multi-sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. By constructing a theoretical framework that includes households, enterprises, governments, and the environment, and calibrating parameters to simulate different carbon tax policy scenarios, the macroeconomic effects are analyzed. The research shows that carbon tax policies suppress investment and consumption in the short term, but optimizing the tax refund mechanism can alleviate the impact. In the long term, they can promote the optimization of industrial structure and the progress of clean technologies, achieving a win-win situation of emission reduction and growth. Economic growth and environmental quality exhibit a “short-term trade-off, long-term synergy” characteristic. This study provides a theoretical basis and policy reference for improving the scientific design of carbon tax policies and ensuring their implementation coordination under the “dual carbon” goals.