江苏省制造业碳达峰最优路径研究

Research on the Optimal Pathway for Carbon Peak in Jiangsu’s Manufacturing Industry

摘要: 《中国制造2025》试点城市群的江苏省作为中国制造业的重地，其制造业碳达峰最优路径研究，对于全国“双碳”目标的实现具有重要示范意义。基于2002、2007、2012、2017年江苏省投入产出表，利用投入产出分析方法准确测度15个制造业的完全碳排放量。《江苏省碳达峰实施方案》中提出希望金属冶炼及压延加工品、非金属矿物制品、化学产品、纺织服装鞋帽及其羽绒制品挣力率先达峰，因此本文以这五个制造业部门作为研究对象。在此基础上构建STIRPAT模型，并结合岭回归方法识别碳排放的关键驱动因素，包括就业人数、人均产值、能源结构、能源利用效率和完全碳排放强度。通过构建四类发展路径模式，预测制造业各部门未来实现碳达峰的最优路径。研究得出，不同部门碳达峰进程差异显著：轻工类行业纺织服装鞋帽与羽绒制品、造纸印刷和文教体育用品在绿色发展路径下可于2030年前实现碳达峰且累计排放最低。高碳排放行业如金属冶炼和压延加工品、非金属矿物制品及化学产品需依赖技术突破路径，实现峰值和累计排放最小化。不同部门碳达峰进程呈明显分化特征，因此制定分部门、分路径的差异化减排策略对于实现江苏制造业整体低碳转型具有重要指导意义。

Abstract: As one of the pilot city clusters for Made in China 2025, Jiangsu Province—being a major hub of China’s manufacturing industry—holds significant demonstrative value for achieving the national “dual carbon” goals. Based on the 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017 input–output tables of Jiangsu Province, this study employs the input–output analysis method to accurately measure the total carbon emissions of 15 manufacturing sectors. On this basis, a STIRPAT model is constructed and combined with ridge regression to identify the key drivers of carbon emissions, including employment, per capita output value, energy structure, energy utilization efficiency, and total carbon emission intensity. Through four development pathway scenarios, the study forecasts the optimal pathways for different manufacturing sectors to achieve carbon peaking in the future. The results show significant heterogeneity in the carbon peaking timelines across sectors: petroleum refining, coking and nuclear fuel processing, chemical products, textiles, and apparel, leather, and down products are expected to peak before 2030; transportation equipment, metal products, and communication equipment, computers, and other electronic products are projected to peak after 2030; whereas non-metallic mineral products, electrical machinery and equipment, and six other sectors may still face challenges in peaking before 2040. Based on a trade-off analysis between cumulative carbon emissions and carbon peaking time, differentiated optimal pathways are proposed: petroleum refining, coking and nuclear fuel processing, chemical products, transportation equipment, metal products, communication equipment, computers and other electronic products, wood processing and furniture, non-metallic mineral products, food and tobacco, and electrical machinery and equipment are more suitable for the “green development” pathway; metal smelting and rolling processing, general and special equipment, instruments and meters, paper printing, and cultural, educational, and sports goods show better emission reduction performance under the “baseline” pathway; while textiles and apparel, leather, and down products, as well as textiles, rely on the “technological breakthrough” pathway to achieve carbon peaking.