绿色金融政策对区域经济–环境协调发展的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Green Finance Policies on Coordinated Development of Regional Economy and Environment

摘要: 绿色金融政策作为推动经济–环境协同发展的重要工具，其效果发挥是否存在非线性特征及区域差异仍需深入探讨。本文基于2013~2023年中国省级面板数据，运用面板门槛模型和中介效应分析框架，系统考察绿色金融政策对经济–环境协调度的影响机制。研究发现：绿色金融政策对EEH的影响存在显著单门槛效应，门槛值为2.0053，当政策强度跨越该阈值后，促进效应从不显著跃升至1%水平显著。区域异质性分析表明，东部地区主要通过技术创新路径传导，中西部地区则依赖资源配置路径。内生性与稳健性检验证实结果可靠，工具变量法修正后核心系数提升至0.0423。研究结论为制定差异化绿色金融政策提供理论依据，建议实施“门槛值精准调控 + 区域路径适配”的组合策略，东部强化技术创新激励，中西部优化资源配置效率。

Abstract: As an important tool for promoting coordinated economic-environmental development, the effectiveness of green finance policies still requires in-depth exploration regarding their potential non-linear characteristics and regional differences. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2013 to 2023, this study systematically examines the impact mechanism of green finance policies on economic-environmental harmony (EEH) using a panel threshold model and mediating effect analysis framework. The research findings reveal a significant single threshold effect in the impact of green finance policies on EEH, with a threshold value of 2.0053. When policy intensity crosses this threshold, the promotional effect jumps from being insignificant to statistically significant at the 1% level. Regional heterogeneity analysis indicates that eastern regions primarily transmit effects through technological innovation pathways, while central and western regions rely on resource allocation pathways. Endogeneity and robustness tests confirm the reliability of the results, with the core coefficient increasing to 0.0423 after correction using instrumental variable methods. The research conclusions provide a theoretical basis for formulating differentiated green finance policies. It is recommended to implement a combined strategy of “threshold value precision regulation + regional pathway adaptation”, strengthening technological innovation incentives in eastern regions and optimizing resource allocation efficiency in central and western regions.