展览类建筑施工期成本风险评价

Cost Risk Assessment during Construction of Exhibition Buildings

摘要: 随着各类大型展览类建筑的施工项目的不断推进，针对其施工期成本风险尚未建立起一套全面且完善的评价指标体系。通过研究系统分析施工期遇到的各种潜在风险因素，以问卷调查为基础，通过随机森林算法对风险因素进行筛选。构建了由4个一级指标、20项具体二级指标的综合施工成本风险评价体系。运用层次分析法(AHP)和改进后的ICUOWGA算子确定各个指标的综合权重，并采用灰色聚类模型对项目整体风险及每个二级指标风险进行等级评估。以B市某在施展览类项目为例，在项目整体层面上评估的风险等级属于“中风险”，对属于“中风险”、“较高风险”的指标因素进行具体归类说明。

Abstract: With the continuous promotion of the construction projects of various large-scale exhibition buildings, a comprehensive and perfect evaluation index system has not been established for the cost risk during the construction period. Various potential risk factors encountered during the construction period are systematically analyzed through research. Based on the questionnaire survey, the risk factors are screened through random forest algorithm. A comprehensive construction cost risk assessment system consisting of 4 first-class indicators and 20 specific second-class indicators is constructed. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the improved ICUOWGA operator are used to determine the comprehensive weight of each index, and the grey clustering model is used to evaluate the overall risk of the project and the risk level of each secondary index. Taking an exhibition project under construction in B city as an example, the risk level assessed at the overall level of the project is “medium risk”; the indicator factors belonging to “medium risk” and “higher risk” are classified and explained in detail.