动态演化视角下在线旅游商家营销策略的博弈与优化

Game and Optimization of Marketing Strategies for Online Tourism Merchants from the Perspective of Dynamic Evolution

摘要: 在数字经济与旅游业深度融合的背景下，在线旅游平台(OTA)已成为旅游生态系统的核心。然而，平台商家普遍面临同质化竞争与“囚徒困境”式的营销策略挑战。本研究基于演化博弈理论，构建了一个包含平台、商家与消费者的三方动态博弈模型，旨在分析商家营销策略(低价竞争、差异化服务、UGC激励)的演化路径及其稳定性。通过复制动态方程、雅可比矩阵稳定性分析及数值仿真，本研究揭示了平台规则(如佣金率、流量分配)、消费者行为反馈(如评价分享)以及外部冲击(如公共卫生事件)对商家策略选择的关键影响。研究结果表明，差异化服务是打破同质化竞争锁定的有效途径，而平台采用动态佣金机制与基于Shapley值的流量分配模型能显著提升系统整体效率。最后，本文从平台规则优化、商家策略调整及政策监管三个层面提出了管理启示与政策建议，为OTA行业的健康可持续发展提供了理论依据与实践指导。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the deep integration of the digital economy and the tourism industry, Online Travel Platforms (OTAs) have become the core of the tourism ecosystem. However, platform merchants commonly face challenges related to homogeneous competition and “prisoner’s dilemma”—like marketing strategies. Based on evolutionary game theory, this study constructs a tripartite dynamic game model involving the platform, merchants, and consumers, aiming to analyze the evolutionary pathways and stability of merchant marketing strategies (low-price competition, differentiated services, UGC incentives). Through replication dynamic equations, Jacobian matrix stability analysis, and numerical simulations, this research reveals the critical influences of platform rules (e.g., commission rates, traffic allocation), consumer behavior feedback (e.g., review sharing), and external shocks (e.g., Public emergency) on merchants’ strategic choices. The results indicate that differentiated services are an effective way to break the lock-in of homogeneous competition, and platforms adopting dynamic commission mechanisms and Shapley value-based traffic allocation models can significantly improve overall system efficiency. Finally, management insights and policy recommendations are proposed from three aspects: platform rule optimization, merchant strategy adjustment, and policy regulation, providing a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the healthy and sustainable development of the OTA industry.