论证人均GDP与婴儿死亡率关系变化的“拐点”假设——全球高收入国家婴儿死亡率影响因素的岭回归分析

Proving the Hypothesis of a “Inflection Point” in the Relationship between Per Capita GDP and Infant Mortality Rate—Ridge Regression Analysis of Factors Influencing Infant Mortality in High Income Countries Worldwide

摘要: 本文基于世界银行数据库，以高收入国家的婴儿死亡率为因变量，人口、经济、能源与环境、教育、农业、卫生等6个维度的指标为自变量，采用岭回归分析的方法，在单维分析基础上，构建“六维一体分析框架”，旨在论证人均GDP与婴儿死亡率关系变化的“拐点”假设，分析不同发展阶段婴儿死亡率的影响因素，并判断对婴儿死亡率的影响程度。结果表明，2个国家出现了从非积极影响向积极影响的第一转变；26个国家出现了从积极影响向非积极影响的第二转变；10个国家既出现了第一转变又出现了第二转变。在不同发展阶段，人口因素总是占据主导地位，经济、能源与环境、教育、农业、卫生等因素处于次要地位。人均GDP并不总是婴儿死亡率的影响因素，其作用机制有待深入研究。面临关系转变应及时调整防控策略，落实针对性干预措施。

Abstract: This article is based on the World Bank database, with infant mortality rate in high-income countries as the dependent variable and six dimensions of indicators, including population, economy, energy and environment, education, agriculture, and health as independent variables. Ridge regression analysis is used to construct a “six-dimensional integrated analysis framework” on the basis of one-dimensional analysis. The aim is to demonstrate the “inflection point” hypothesis of the relationship between per capita GDP and infant mortality rate, analyze the influencing factors of infant mortality rate at different stages of development, and determine the degree of impact on infant mortality rate. The results indicate that there has been a first shift from non positive impacts to positive impacts in two countries; 26 countries have experienced a second shift from positive impact to non positive impact; Ten countries have undergone both the first and second transformations. At different stages of development, population factors always dominate, while factors such as economy, energy and environment, education, agriculture, and health are in a secondary position. Per capita GDP is not always a factor affecting infant mortality, and its mechanism of action needs further research. In the face of changes in relationships, timely adjustments should be made to prevention and control strategies, and targeted intervention measures should be implemented.