引入动态GRA-退出倍数法的煤炭企业价值评估研究

Coal Enterprise Valuation with the Dynamic GRA-Exit Multiple Method

摘要: 针对周期性行业估值中可比公司筛选的主观性问题，本文创新性地将动态分辨系数引入灰色关联分析，并以此为核心构建了一个全新的两阶段估值框架。该框架首先通过FCFF模型捕捉详细预测期的企业价值，继而运用经改进灰色关联法校准的退出倍数计算终值，从而将长期不确定性转化为可控的中期市场比较问题。应用于煤炭企业A公司的案例显示，其估值误差由传统方法的8.31%降至1.66%，验证了动态分辨系数机制在提升估值准确性方面的关键作用。本研究为评估受宏观周期显著影响的企业价值提供了更为科学、可靠的方法论。

Abstract: To address the issue of subjectivity in selecting comparable companies for the valuation of cyclical industries, this study innovatively introduces a dynamic distinction coefficient into the Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) and constructs a novel two-stage valuation framework centered around this improvement. The framework first captures the enterprise value during the detailed forecast period using the Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) model. It then calculates the terminal value by applying an exit multiple calibrated through the improved GRA method, thereby transforming long-term uncertainties into a manageable problem of medium-term market comparison. A case application on Coal Company A demonstrates that the valuation error is reduced from 8.31% using the traditional method to 1.66%, validating the critical role of the dynamic distinction coefficient mechanism in enhancing valuation accuracy. This research provides a more scientific and reliable methodology for valuing enterprises significantly affected by macroeconomic cycles.