环境规制对外商直接投资的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Environmental Regulations on Foreign Direct Investment

摘要: 我国外贸高速发展伴随环境压力，协调环境治理与外资发展至关重要。本文基于2007~2022年中国大陆31个省、自治区和直辖市的面板数据，运用双向固定效应和中介效应模型，以政府工作报告环保词频占比衡量环境规制，实证检验其对外商直接投资(FDI)的影响及机制。研究发现：(1) 环境规制显著抑制FDI流入，支持“污染者天堂假说”，结论具有稳健性；(2) 该抑制效应在我国中西部地区更为显著；(3) 环境规制通过倒逼绿色技术创新间接吸引FDI，但也会因抑制营商环境而加剧其负面效应。基于此，本文建议分阶段实施差异化环境政策、加强绿色技术扶持、优化政府服务，以促进绿色协调发展。

Abstract: The rapid growth of China’s foreign trade has been accompanied by mounting environmental pressures, making the coordination of environmental governance and foreign investment development a critical task for sustainable progress. Based on panel data from 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government in mainland China spanning 2007 to 2022, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model and a mediation effect model to empirically examine the impact of environmental regulation—measured by the frequency of environmental keywords in government work reports—on foreign direct investment and its underlying mechanisms. Our findings reveal that environmental regulation significantly curbs FDI inflows, providing support for the “Pollution Haven Hypothesis,” and the results are robust to various robustness tests; further, this inhibitory effect is more pronounced in China’s central and western regions. Additionally, while environmental regulation indirectly attracts FDI by driving green technological innovation, it also exacerbates its negative impact on FDI by hindering the business environment, such as increasing compliance costs for enterprises and reducing administrative efficiency. Based on these results, this paper recommends implementing phased and differentiated environmental policies, enhancing support for green technologies, and optimizing government services to balance environmental protection with foreign investment attraction and promote green, coordinated development.