企业绿色可持续发展的仿真研究——以山西省为例

Simulation Research on Corporate Green Sustainable Development—A Case Study of Shanxi Province

摘要: 随着世界各国绿色可持续发展的提出，以及我国“双碳”目标的推进，企业的绿色可持续发展成为区域转型的关键。以工业为主导的省份，在我国经济发展初期起到了巨大的贡献，但如今大多存在严重环境污染问题，并且GDP增速缓慢，不符合我国如今的发展方向，面临着更加严峻的挑战，所以这些省份应考虑企业的绿色转型问题。本文通过分析能源、经济与环境之间的关系，通过运用系统动力学模型，使用Vensim软件构建了对山西省企业绿色可持续发展的仿真模拟研究。本文数据来自山西省国民经济和社会发展的统计公报，我们截取2004~2034年作为我们仿真的时间设定区间。聚焦于不同环境污染治理投资与不同三产投资比例，并分为八个政策组合。同时，通过改变这些不同变量，得出相关对比图，进行观察分析，最终可以提出在绿色可持续发展的条件下对企业转型的相关方案。

Abstract: With the global emphasis on green sustainable development and the advancement of China’s “dual carbon” goals, corporate green sustainable development has become crucial for regional transformation. Industrial-dominated provinces, which contributed significantly to China’s early economic growth, now face severe environmental pollution and slow GDP growth. These issues are inconsistent with China’s current development direction and present considerable challenges. Therefore, such provinces must consider promoting green transformation in enterprises. This study analyzes the relationships among energy, economy, and the environment by applying a system dynamics model and using Vensim software to simulate corporate green sustainable development in Shanxi Province. Data were sourced from the Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social Development of Shanxi Province, with the simulation period set from 2004 to 2034. Focusing on different levels of investment in environmental pollution control and varying investment ratios in the tertiary industry, eight policy scenarios were designed. By adjusting these variables, comparative charts were generated for observation and analysis. Ultimately, strategies for corporate transformation under green sustainable development conditions were proposed.