页岩气开发风险与隐患定级适用方法分析

Analysis of Applicable Methods for Risk and Hazard Rating in Shale Gas Development

摘要: 为构建双重预防机制，优化页岩气开发“风险分级管控”与“隐患排查治理”的闭环管理，需科学选取风险与隐患定级方法。本文以长宁公司页岩气开发为研究对象，结合企业生产过程选取典型风险与隐患类型，通过实践定级综合对比，系统分析了风险评估矩阵法等风险评估定级方法，以及对标法等隐患定级方法的适用性。结果表明：风险矩阵法通过风险概率与后果的组合，兼具高效性与可靠性，可作为页岩气开发风险评估定级的核心工具；对标法依托法规标准实现页岩气开发隐患“零歧义”定级，具有定级精准与合规性优势。

Abstract: To establish a dual prevention mechanism and optimize the closed-loop management of “risk classification control” and “hazard investigation and remediation” in shale gas development, it is necessary to scientifically select risk and hazard rating methods. This paper uses Changning Company’s shale gas development as a research object. Based on the company’s production processes, typical risk and hazard types are selected. Through a comprehensive comparison of practical ratings, this paper systematically analyzes the applicability of risk assessment and rating methods, such as the risk assessment matrix method, and hazard rating methods, such as the benchmarking method. The results show that the risk matrix method, by combining risk probability and consequences, is both efficient and reliable, and can serve as a core tool for shale gas development risk assessment and rating. The benchmarking method, relying on regulatory standards, achieves “zero ambiguity” rating of shale gas development hazards, offering advantages in accuracy and compliance.