电池板温度及辐射量对光伏发电量影响的趋势面分析

A Trend-Surface Analysis on the Effect of Battery Plate Temperature and Radiation Levels on Pv Generating Capacity

摘要: 利用临沂巨皇光伏跟踪示范电站2011年光伏发电数据和同步辐射观测资料，采用趋势面分析法进行春、夏、秋、冬四季和全年多晶硅太阳能板温度变化和辐射量变化对发电量影响分析，结果表明：四季和全年发电量二次和三次趋势面拟合度均达显著水平，可以揭示其影响变化趋势，电池板温度和辐射量变化对光伏发电量影响的二次趋势面拟合方程完全可以用于光伏电站发电量的预报预测。另外研究发现板温和辐射量变化对发电量的影响较为复杂，二者相互制约又共同发挥作用，总体表现出双向渐变趋势，即辐射量正向变化、板温负向变化。不同季节发电量受板温和辐射量变化影响其变化趋势和幅度也有所不同，板温对光伏发电量的影响较为复杂。

Abstract: Using PV data from Linyi Juhuang PV tracking demonstration power plant in 2011 and observational data of synchrotron radiation, and adopting trend-surface analysis, this paper analyzes effect of temperature changes of polycrystalline silicon solar panels and radiation changes of four seasons as spring, summer, autumn and winter and a whole year on generating capacity. The results show that the second and third trend-surfaces fit degrees of four seasons and a whole-year generating capacity reaches significant level. The effect changing trends can be revealed. The second trend-surface fitting equation of effect of temperature of the battery plate and radiation changes on PV generating capacity can be used in forecast of PV power station output. In addition, the study finds that the effect of plate temperature and radiation changes on generating capacity is rather complex. They restrict each other and work together. In a whole, they show a bi-directional trend, that is, if radiation level has the positive change, strip temperature has the negative change. Power generations in different seasons are influenced by strip temperature and radiation changes, and the change trend and range are different. The influence of strip temperature on PV generating capacity is more complex.