我国副省级城市青壮年人口迁入态势研究

In-Migration Dynamics of Prime-Age Population in China’s Sub-Provincial Cities

摘要: 当前国家要增强中心城市和城市群等经济发展优势区域的集聚和辐射带动能力，聚焦我国15个副省级城市青壮年人口迁入集聚态势，依据跨省与省内迁移路径的迁入水平，将人口迁入模式划分为跨省主导型与省内主导型两类。研究发现，两类模式核心差异体现在人口吸引力辐射范围与来源结构上，高学历群体进一步呈现“省内虹吸型”“跨省辐射型”及东北低位型分化特征。城市能级与省域人口基数的匹配关系是分化主因，南北方发展差异、省域“双核心”竞争加剧了这一态势。经济发展水平与科创活力是核心驱动因素，前者与迁入水平呈正相关，后者呈倒U型增长关系。研究为明晰副省级城市人口流动规律、优化省域人才配置及城市发展定位提供了重要依据。

Abstract: At present, China aims to enhance the agglomeration and radiation-driven capacity of economically advantageous regions such as central cities and urban agglomerations. Focusing on the agglomeration trend of young and middle-aged population inflow into China’s 15 sub-provincial cities, this study classifies population inflow modes into two types—inter-provincial dominant type and intra-provincial dominant type—based on the inflow levels via inter-provincial and intra-provincial migration paths. The research finds that the core differences between the two modes lie in the radiation scope and source structure of population attraction. Highly educated groups further show differentiated characteristics of “intra-provincial siphon type”, “inter-provincial radiation type” and “Northeast low-position type”. The matching relationship between urban hierarchy and provincial population base is the main cause of such differentiation, which is exacerbated by the development gap between the south and the north and the intensified “dual-core” competition within provinces. Economic development level is positively correlated with population inflow level, while scientific and technological innovation vitality presents an inverted U-shaped growth relationship with it. This study provides an important basis for clarifying the population flow laws of sub-provincial cities, optimizing provincial talent allocation and defining urban development positioning.