杭州市消费券绩效评价研究——基于结构方程模型

Study on Performance Evaluation of Hangzhou Consumption Vouchers —Based on Structural Equation Modeling

摘要: 本研究聚焦“数字消费券”，以浙江省杭州市居民为对象，围绕其发放现状与绩效评价展开调查。研究通过随机森林算法探究影响居民满意度的关键因素(其中客观满意度借助熵权法计算)，并运用多重对应分析和PLS-SEM结构方程模型，系统验证影响数字消费券政策效能的关键路径与作用机制。结果显示，数字消费券发放显著促进了居民消费，参与调查者中超90%曾参与该活动，超七成居民表示满意。然而，研究也发现数字消费券在申领过程中存在抢券难、使用门槛高、有效期短、优惠力度有限及使用场景单一等问题，尤其对老年群体存在“数字鸿沟”现象。基于上述发现，本研究从宣传、申领、服务、消极影响及政策效能五个层面构建了数字消费券绩效评价指标体系，并提出优化建议，以推动政策持续完善，更好发挥其经济与社会效益。

Abstract: This study focuses on “digital consumption vouchers”, targeting residents of Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and conducts an investigation into their distribution status and performance evaluation. Using the Random Forest algorithm to explore key factors influencing residents’ satisfaction (with objective satisfaction calculated via the entropy weight method), and applying Multiple Correspondence Analysis and PLS-SEM (Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling), this research systematically verifies the key pathways and mechanisms affecting the policy effectiveness of digital consumption vouchers. The results indicate that the distribution of vouchers significantly promoted resident consumption, with over 90% of survey participants having engaged in voucher activities and over 70% expressing satisfaction. However, issues were identified in the voucher claiming process, such as difficulty in obtaining vouchers, high usage thresholds, short validity periods, limited discounts, and a lack of diverse usage scenarios. A “digital divide” was particularly notable among the elderly. Based on these findings, the study constructs a performance evaluation index system across five dimensions: promotion, claiming process, service, negative impacts, and policy effectiveness. Optimization suggestions are proposed to promote the continuous improvement of the digital consumption voucher policy and enhance its economic and social benefits.