电子商务、农产品销售与农业经济发展

E-Commerce, Sales of Agricultural Products and Agricultural Economic Development

摘要: 随着数字技术的迅猛发展，电子商务已深刻重塑了农产品流通体系与农业经济发展模式。本文基于交易成本理论和消费者行为理论，系统分析了电子商务影响农业经济发展的内在机制。电子商务平台通过降低信息不对称、压缩流通环节、拓展市场范围，显著降低了农产品交易成本，增加了农产品的销售量，并且通过兴趣推荐机制与沉浸式内容场景激发潜在消费需求，实现“货找人”的销售模式转变；通过供应链整合与品牌化建设提升农产品附加值。本文选取2013~2020地级市面板数据实证研究发现，电子商务可以促进农业经济的发展。而进一步研究表明，电子商务能够通过提高农产品销售来促进农业经济发展。本文采用了剔除异常值、缩减样本、滞后解释变量等稳健性检验，实证结果与基准回归结果依然一致。同时，通过异质性分析，电商水平的发展对于农业经济发展的影响在东、中、西部地区存在一定差距。相比于中西部地区，电商发展水平对于中西部农业经济发展影响更加显著。

Abstract: With the rapid development of digital technology, e-commerce has profoundly reshaped the agricultural circulation system and agricultural economic development model. Based on the theory of transaction cost and the theory of consumer behavior, this article systematically analyzes the intrinsic mechanism of e-commerce affecting the development of agricultural economy. By reducing information asymmetry, compressing circulation links, and expanding the market scope, the e-commerce platform has significantly reduced the transaction cost of agricultural products, increased the sales of agricultural products, and stimulated potential consumer demand through interest recommendation mechanisms and immersive content scenarios, so as to realize the transformation of the sales model of “goods looking for people”; through supply Chain integration and brand construction improve the added value of agricultural products. This article selects the 2013~2020 prefecture-level city panel data empirical research and finds that e-commerce can promote the development of agricultural economy. Further research shows that e-commerce can promote agricultural economic development by increasing the sales of agricultural products. This paper adopts robustness tests such as elimination of abnormal values, reduction of samples, and delayed interpretation variables, and the empirical results are still consistent with the results of reference regression. At the same time, through heterogeneity analysis, there is a certain gap in the impact of the development of e-commerce level on agricultural economic development in the eastern, central and western regions. Compared with the central and western regions, the development of e-commerce has a more significant impact on the development of agricultural economy in the central and western regions.