外商直接投资对中国就业结构优化的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Optimization of China’s Employment Structure

摘要: 外商直接投资是推进高水平对外开放的重要力量。本文以国务院审议通过的《2025年稳外资行动方案》为背景，基于1996~2023年中国大陆31个省、自治区、直辖市的地级及以上城市的面板数据，实证检验外商直接投资(FDI)对中国就业结构优化的影响。结果表明，FDI显著促进就业结构优化，该结论经稳健性检验后仍成立。机制检验揭示FDI能通过产业结构升级、产业结构整体升级与产业结构高级化为优化就业结构提供重要支撑。异质性分析发现其效果存在区域差异，东部显著、中西部滞后。文章旨在丰富相关理论体系，为相关部门优化外资相关政策、完善引资布局、提升劳动者技能、促进就业质量提供参考。

Abstract: Foreign Direct Investment is a key driver of advancing high-level opening-up in China. Against the backdrop of the 2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment approved by the State Council, this paper uses panel data from prefecture-level and above cities in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government in mainland China spanning 1996~2023 to empirically examine the impact of FDI on the optimization of China’s employment structure. The results indicate that FDI significantly promotes employment structure optimization, and this conclusion remains robust after rigorous robustness tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that FDI supports employment structure optimization through industrial structure upgrading—specifically, by driving overall industrial structure upgrading and advancing industrial structure to higher value-added sectors. Heterogeneity analysis further uncovers regional disparities: the positive effects of FDI are pronounced in the eastern region but lag behind in the central and western regions. This study aims to enrich the relevant theoretical framework and provide practical references for relevant authorities to optimize foreign investment policies, improve the layout of foreign investment attraction, enhance workers’ skills, and elevate employment quality.