居民消费水平对电商发展的驱动机制与区域异质性研究

The Driving Mechanism and Regional Heterogeneity of Resident Consumption Levels on E-Commerce Development

摘要: 随着互联网技术的深度普及与数字经济时代的全面来临，电子商务作为新型商业模式，已成为推动国民经济高质量发展的重要引擎。居民消费作为拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”之一，其水平与结构的变迁同电子商务发展之间存在何种内在逻辑关联，是当前学界与政策制定者高度关注的现实议题。本研究旨在从宏观层面系统探究居民消费水平及其结构性特征对电子商务发展的影响机制。通过梳理既有文献与理论，本文提出核心研究假说：居民消费水平的提升整体上对电商发展具有正向促进作用，且不同性质的消费支出：生存型消费与发展享受型消费对电商发展的影响存在显著差异。本文通过采用2015~2022年的电商数据，使用双向固定效应模型进行估计，基准回归结果表明，生存型消费支出对电子商务销售额产生了显著且稳健的正向影响，而发展享受消费支出的影响则相对较弱。这一发现通过了稳健性检验，确保了研究结论的可靠性。同时通过机制检验分析可知，居民消费可以通过线上迁移效应和需求升级效应来促进电商发展。进一步的异质性分析揭示，上述效应在东部沿海地区与中西部地区之间存在差异，东部地区的消费结构升级对电商发展的驱动作用更为强劲。最后本研究得出结论，中国电商的增长逻辑曾由生存型消费的“规模效应”主导；同时，地区间效应差异揭示了消费驱动模式随发展阶段而演进，为差异化政策制定提供了重要启示。

Abstract: With the deep popularization of Internet technology and the full arrival of the digital economy era, e-commerce, as new business model, has become an important engine to promote the high-quality development of the national economy. As one of the “three carriages” to stimulate economic growth, the and structural changes of household consumption are highly concerned by the academic circles and policy makers. What is the internal logical relationship between the level and structure of household consumption and the development of ecommerce? This is a realistic issue of great concern to the current academic circles and policy makers. This study aims to systematically investigate the impact mechanism of household consumption level and its structural on the development of e-commerce at the macro level. Through the literature and theoretical sorting, this article proposes a core research hypothesis: the improvement of household consumption level has a positive effect on the development of e-commerce as a whole, and the impact of different types of consumption expenditure: survival consumption and development and enjoyment consumption on the development of e-commerce obvious differences. This article adopts the e-commerce data from 2015 to 2022, and uses the double fixed effect model to estimate. The benchmark results show that survival consumption expenditure has a significant and robust positive impact on e-commerce sales, while the impact of development and enjoyment consumption expenditure is relatively weak. This finding has the robustness test, ensuring the reliability of the research conclusion. At the same time, it can be seen from the mechanism test analysis that household consumption can promote the development of e- through the online migration effect and the demand upgrade effect. Further heterogeneous analysis reveals that the above effects vary between the eastern coastal areas and the central and western regions, and the driving effect consumption structure upgrading in the eastern region on the development of e-commerce is stronger. Finally, this study concludes that the growth logic of China’s e-commerce used to be by the “scale effect” of survival consumption; at the same time, the effect differences between regions reveal that the consumption-driven model evolves with the development stage, providing important enlight for the formulation of differentiated policies.