基于SEIQR模型的电商负面信息管控与经济增长研究

Research on E-Commerce Negative Information Management and Economic Growth Based on the SEIQR Model

摘要: 在电子商务蓬勃发展的背景下，负面信息的快速传播严重威胁平台声誉与消费者信任，进而对电商经济的健康运行构成挑战。为量化分析负面信息的传播机制并评估管控策略的经济效益，本文构建了一个电商环境下的SEIQR动力学模型。该模型引入了年龄结构以刻画信息存续时间对其传播效力的影响，并采用Dirichlet边界条件来模拟平台政策(如限流、降权)的空间约束效应。通过定义基本再生数，讨论了基本再生数的阈值范围。数值模拟仿真表明：当基本再生数小于1时，负面信息将逐渐消亡，平台环境得以净化；基本再生数大于1时，负面信息会持续存在并可能扩散，需平台及时干预。并进一步揭示了信息传播动态对平台“空间”形态的依赖性。构建SEIQR模型研究发现，负面信息的传播潜力值越小，传播越容易消亡；不同的空间区域形状会有不同的传播效果。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of booming e-commerce, the rapid spread of negative information poses a serious threat to platform reputation and consumer trust, thereby challenging the healthy operation of the e-commerce economy. To quantitatively analyze the dissemination mechanisms of negative information and evaluate the economic benefits of control strategies, this paper constructs an SEIQR dynamic model within an e-commerce environment. The model innovatively introduces an age structure to characterize the impact of information longevity on its dissemination efficacy, and employs Dirichlet boundary conditions to simulate the spatial constraints of platform policies (e.g., traffic restriction, down-ranking). By defining the basic reproduction number, the threshold range of this number is discussed. Numerical simulations demonstrate that when the basic reproduction number is less than 1, negative information gradually diminishes, leading to a purified platform environment. When the basic reproduction number exceeds 1, negative information persists and may proliferate, requiring timely platform intervention. Furthermore, the results reveal the dependence of information dissemination dynamics on the “spatial” morphology of the platform. The study, based on the constructed SEIQR model, finds that the smaller the propagation potential value of negative information, the more likely it is to die out. Additionally, different spatial domain geometries yield varying dissemination effects.