湖南省1999~2020年森林火灾发生规律

The Occurrence Pattern of Forest Fires in Hunan Province (1999~2020)

摘要: 森林火灾作为全球性的生态安全问题，其发生规律深受自然与人为因素的双重驱动。湖南省作为我国南方典型的亚热带林区，森林火灾频发，系统研究其长期规律对区域防灾减灾至关重要。本研究基于1999~2020年的长时间序列数据，综合运用数理统计与GIS空间分析(包括核密度估计)，系统揭示了湖南省森林火灾的时空动态、危害特征及驱动机制。结果表明：(1) 时序上，火灾年发生频次在2008年达到峰值后总体呈显著下降趋势，且2010年后未发生重大火灾，反映出防火政策的积极成效；(2) 空间上，火灾呈现明显的聚集性分布，核密度分析精准识别出湘南的永州市和郴州市为稳定的火灾热点区，其空间格局与复杂地形和高强度人类活动高度耦合；(3) 驱动机制上，火源分析明确证实人为因素是绝对主导(占比 > 99%)，其中农事用火与祭祀用火是最主要的火源类型。本研究结论强调，湖南省森林火灾在本质上是一个受人类行为深刻影响的“社会–生态”问题。据此，我们提出了从“被动扑救”向“主动预防、精准管理”战略转型的系列措施，包括火源精准管控、社区共管和精细化风险评估，以期为南方集体林区的火灾风险防控与资源优化配置提供直接的科学依据。

Abstract: As a global ecological security concern, the occurrence patterns of forest fires are dually driven by natural and anthropogenic factors. Hunan Province, a typical subtropical forest region in southern China, is prone to frequent forest fires. A systematic investigation of their long-term dynamics is therefore critical for regional disaster prevention and mitigation. Drawing on long-term time-series data spanning 1999~2020, this study integrates mathematical statistics and GIS-based spatial analysis (including kernel density estimation) to systematically unravel the spatiotemporal dynamics, hazard characteristics, and driving mechanisms of forest fires in Hunan Province. The key findings are as follows: (1) Temporal dynamics: The annual frequency of fires peaked in 2008 and has since exhibited a statistically significant downward trend. Notably, no major fires have occurred since 2010, reflecting the positive efficacy of fire prevention policies. (2) Spatial patterns: Fires display a distinct clustered distribution. Kernel density analysis precisely identifies Yongzhou and Chenzhou in southern Hunan as persistent fire hotspots, whose spatial configurations are highly coupled with complex terrain and intensive human activities. (3) Driving mechanisms: Fire source analysis explicitly confirms that anthropogenic factors are the absolute dominant driver (accounting for >99%), with agricultural burning and ritual burning being the primary fire source types. This study concludes that forest fires in Hunan Province are inherently a “social-ecological” issue deeply shaped by human behavior. Accordingly, we propose a strategic shift from “passive suppression” to “proactive prevention and precision management”, encompassing targeted fire source control, community co-governance, and refined risk assessment. These measures aim to provide direct scientific support for fire risk mitigation and optimal resource allocation in collective forest regions of southern China.